Friday, the United States led a series of strikes on sites in Syria and Iraq that it said belonged to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated militias. These air raids come in retaliation for the January 28 attack perpetrated by the armed group Iraqi Islamic Resistance (IRI) against a military base in Jordan, which killed three American soldiers and injured more than 40 others.
In a statement released the same day, US President Joe Biden said the response would not stop at IRGC targets. US and British forces bombed Houthi bases in Yemen on Saturday, in an apparent continuation of efforts to degrade their ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. Other attacks could also take place in the coming days, but it is clear that the United States is refraining from directly striking Iran, which it accuses of supplying weapons to the IRI.
A military response was politically inevitable for the Biden administration. As is normally the case in an election year, any serious national development or international incident involving the interests or prestige of the United States becomes a defining moment for the incumbent administration, whether Republican or Democratic.
This measured retaliation reflects the fact that the US president has many reasons to be concerned in terms of domestic perceptions and attitudes of the voters he seeks to influence in his favor, as well as dramatic shifts in his electorate. own party.
Pressure from Trump
Since October 7, the Israeli government has sought to present the Hamas attack as an act of Iranian aggression. After the January 28 attack in Jordan, some Republican members of Congress echoed this position.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham minced no words in calling for a direct US strike against Iran itself. Fellow Republicans Tom Cotton of Arkansas and John Cornyn of Texas supported his call.
Former President Donald Trump, who is likely the Republican nominee in November’s presidential election, has taken a rather isolationist and insisted that the attack on the Jordan would not have taken place if he had been in command.
Establishment Republicans like Graham, Cornyn and Cotton may no longer reflect the general mood of the base that now constitutes Trump’s strong base and is trying to change the party’s foreign policy stance. Indeed, supporters of Make America Great Again are loath to extend America’s entanglement abroad and prefer to see financial resources used domestically, for example to strengthen the southern border and stop the influx of migrants and asylum seekers. ‘asylum.
But it’s not just the core of Trump’s base that is taking this anti-escalation stance. Given that the vast majority of Americans fear their country will be drawn into war — about 84 percent, according to a recent poll — Trump’s isolationist rhetoric is finding widespread appeal.
Congressional Democrats, perhaps sensing growing pressure, responded to the Jordan attack by calling for a strong but “proportionate” response, a euphemism for a measured strike against pro-Iranian militia targets, but without directly affecting Iran. Such positions have been expressed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and Senators Ben Cardin of Maryland and Jack Reed of Rhode Island.
Indeed, the Biden administration’s response to the attack in Jordan virtually marked the midpoint between Republicans’ hawkish calls to strike Iran directly and Democrats’ calls for a limited response. According to the Pentagon, its strikes included the command and control centers of Iran’s IRGC and its affiliated militias – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – as well as their drone and intelligence capabilities.
Impact on Biden’s re-election campaign
U.S. foreign policy decisions and actions rarely impact the outcome of presidential elections, much less congressional elections. This time around, however, Biden’s choices could make or break his re-election chances.
In his administration’s response to the attack on Jordan, he had to reconcile his stated disinterest in the widening conflict in the Middle East with the need to respond to an act of aggression against American troops in the region. But the response he ordered was nonetheless an escalation of tensions that could lead to the feared widening of the conflict.
Biden decided on this response, likely with his re-election campaign strategy in mind. Knowing he is unlikely to persuade many die-hard Republicans to shift their votes from presumptive nominee Trump to him, Biden is seeking support from most independents and some moderate Republicans in November. Reports following the New Hampshire primary indicate that Biden may be able to count on segments of these two groups to support his campaign.
Generally supportive of moderate U.S. foreign policy positions that protect American interests and prestige, many independents and moderate Republicans will likely approve of Biden’s response to the Jordan attack.
Even if he gains their support, Biden risks losing that of others. In fact, perhaps the most important problem for him lies in his own Democratic Party, where sentiment is clearly shifting — slowly but noticeably — away from traditional support for military action abroad and at home. Israel.
Young voters in general, who played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 victory, and younger Democrats have become embittered by the president’s policy choices, particularly those related to Israel and the Middle East. They accuse him of hypocrisy because of his contradictory positions on the Russian war against Ukraine and the Israeli war on Gaza.
Above all, the president’s fortune may depend whether Muslim and Arab Americans will decide to vote for him in November. Currently, the support of both communities is in doubt as Biden continues to ignore their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and does nothing to stop the Israeli massacre, in which more than 27,000 Palestinians have been killed.
While his retaliation for the attack on Jordan may be the right geopolitical move that U.S. foreign policy demands, it is unlikely to restore him to the support of young Democrats and Muslim and Arab Americans.
What Biden must do to win their support is disassociate himself and his administration from Israel’s genocidal war, its system of apartheid and its occupation of Palestinian lands. Indeed, his re-election remains uncertain without a new, morally defensible direction for American foreign policy in the Middle East.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
