The United States is no longer a democracy.
At least, this is the verdict of a non -profit organization, the Systemic center of peacewhich measures the qualities of the regime of the worlds of the world according to the competitiveness and the integrity of their elections, from the limits to the executive authority and to other factors.
“The United States is no longer considered a democracy and are at the forefront of autocracy,” said the group’s report in 2025.
He called the second inauguration of Donald Trump following a series of accusation acts and criminal convictions, combined with the granting of the United States Supreme Court in July 2024 of radical presidential immunity, a “presidential coup. “”
Generally, only researchers pay attention to this type of technical index. This year, however, many people are shout THE Erosion of American democracy.
Political scientist like me can see that in the appearance of the “effectiveness” of the government, The Trump administration sabots the rule of law Authoritarianism sets in in America.
How long could this situation last?
Win McNamee / Getty images
Are we no longer a democracy?
The term “political regimeReferring to the person or to people who have power, or to a government classification, including in a democracy.
Since the mid-1960s, when the United States Expanded voting To include its black citizens, Historians and political scientists generally classified the United States as having a democratic regime. This means that the government organizes free and fair elections, embraces universal voting rights, protects civil freedoms and obeys the law.
All these areas have deteriorated considerably in the United States in recent decades due to partisan polarization And political extremism. Now, the The rule of law is attackedAlso.
Trump Unprecedented use of nearly 100 decrees During the first two months of his presidency, aims to adopt a vast political program by decree. As a comparison, President Joe Biden published 162 decrees over four years.
This is not what the founders had in mind: Congress is the constitutional path of the development of policies. Plinth threatens democracy, as well as the problems that Trump’s orders tackle. To try to deny Citizenship by birth right abolish it American Department of EducationTrump attacks both the American Constitution and the Congress. His administration even challenged the judges who order him to stop.
All this questions the rule of law-that is to say the idea that everyone, including those in power, must follow the same laws.
When things get bad, can a country recover?
Autocrats can be beaten
Based on my research, the short answer is yes – possibly.
When a political party which does not honor democratic institutions or which takes into account critical democratic norms takes power, political scientists expect that The government is heading towards the autocratic rule. This means restricting civil freedoms, cancel dissent and undermine the rule of law.
This is currently happening in the United States
The Trump administration is Determine the broadcasters for their electoral coverage And Prohibit speech that does not comply with its gender ideology. It is violating the constitution. And this eliminates the federal funding of universities and research centers that oppose its actions.
However, as long as a country has a strong opposition and elections that offer real opportunities for alternative parties to gain functions, the change of regime is not necessarily permanent.
Take Brazil, for example.
His election in 2022 ousted President Jair Bolsonaro, head of an autocratic regime who had attacked the Brazilian media, the judiciary and the legislature. Bowlsonaro claimed his loss from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was fraudulent and, in January 2023, his supporters attacked the national capital. Since then, Bolsonaro was accused of plotting a coup d’etat And prevented from looking for an office until 2030.
Brazilian voters and courts pulled the autocratic slide from the country and referred it to a democratic regime.
Faga Almeida / UCG / Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Polarization balances the pendulum
Today, the American public is deeply divided And dissatisfied with the functioning of American democracy. This polarization is reflected in presidential elections which are narrowly.
According to the American presidency project At the University of California, Santa Barbara, who measures the presidential margins of victory by subtracting the electoral percentage of the popular voting percentage for each election, the average margin of victory in the presidential elections between 1932 and 2000 was 25 points. Since 2000, it has been 7.8 points.
In addition, since 1948, whenever the White House changed hands after an election, it also overthrew the parties, with one exception in 1988. Politologists refer to this back and forth “Thermostatic shift. “In other words, the electorate is regularly hidden on the status quo and aims to adjust the thermostat to another temperature – or political party.
When a party that more strongly promotes democratic principles takes power, the United States adhere more firmly to democratic institutions and standards. It was essentially Biden’s winning ground to voters in 2020.
Trump’s return to the White House despite Two dismissal and a criminal conviction on 34 crime accusations Marked another swing pendulum – this time, in the sense of authoritarianism.
The American political pendulum has been singing like this since at least 2016, with Trump’s first victory. I expect the oscillation to continue.
A kind of balance
The risk, of course, is that part in the authoritarian power abuses its power Make sure the opposition can never win again. This has occurred in recent decades in Hungary,, Türkiye And VenezuelaTo name only a few.
There are good reasons to believe that a permanent slide in autocracy is more difficult in the United States than in these countries.
The United States has a Robust network and rich in civil society organizationswho know the exercise of their civil freedoms well. Its decentralized federalist structure is more difficult to grasp for anyone or part. US elections, for example, are managed by governments of states and premisesnot the federal government. This makes its electoral systems more resilient than the electoral systems more centralized.
For the moment, I have no reason to fear that the United States will not hold the free and fair elections in 2026 or 2028.
For the moment, the United States is therefore in what I call a “pendulum balance”. Parties exchange majority control while voters react to extremism, passing the regime from more autocratic to more democratic that is in power.
The effect is a stable result in a way – not static stability but dynamic stability. Despite daily chaos, there is a balance over time in the predictable movement in both directions.
When the pendulum stops swinging
Until another force arrives to disrupt the diagram.
This could be more a force towards fascism that restricts the elections to the point of futility, as in Venezuela And Russia. Or balance could be rejected by a democratic resurgence, in the Brazil model or Poland.
Even the simple fact of maintaining the pendulum balance to maintain a certain way of democratic regime will oblige those who oppose authoritarianism to insist boldly on political leaders who appreciate democratic principles: fair elections, voting rights, civil freedoms and law of law.
Dangerously, many Americans will not notice the end of democracy as you go. As the political scientist Tom Pepinksy writes, Life in authoritarian states is mainly boring and tolerable.
For those who care, the frequency and severity of the actions without law can nevertheless make it difficult to maintain organized opposition.
Until the United States maintains and elect the political movements and leaders who bring sustainable democratic changes, I believe that the country will continue to embark on both directions in its swing pendulum.
