The first special election since President-elect Donald J. Trump won a second term will take place Tuesday in Virginia, where voters in three races will determine majorities in the state Legislature.
On its face, the elections are not mysterious: Democrats have significant advantages in the state House district and in one of the two state Senate districts up for grabs, while the other House district high is almost certain to remain in Republican hands. .
But even if there are no upsets, election margins will provide the first clues about voter attitudes as Mr. Trump prepares to take office for a second time. The two seats where Democrats are favored are both in Loudoun County, a Washington suburb that shifted heavily toward the party during Trump’s first presidency. turn to the former president in November.
Democrats, who hold a one-seat majority in both Virginia houses, have raised and spent far more to defend Loudoun’s two seats than Republicans have done to contest them. Democratic candidates have traditionally won both districts easily, but some party members feared that post-election malaise could jeopardize one or both seats.
One Loudoun seat is in the Senate, the other is in the House. The Senate seat became vacant when Suhas Subramanyam, the Democrat who held it, was elected to Congress in November.
Then Kannan Srinivasan, a State House delegate, won the Democratic nomination to replace Mr. Subramanyam and resigned his seat. This triggered a special election for Mr. Srinivasan’s seat in the House. Democrats nominated JJ Singh, a former Capitol aide who would most likely become the first turban-wearing Sikh elected to a state legislature in the United States.
Republicans nominated Tumay Harding, a teacher, for the state Senate seat, and Ram Venkatachalam, an information technology consultant, for the state House seat. They both highlighted their long-term potential end democratic control legislative chambers.
But the Republicans were largely overwhelmed. At the end of December, at the end of the last campaign finance reporting period, Mr. Srinivasan had spent nearly $500,000 on the raceabout four times what Mrs. Harding had exposed.
In the race for the State House, Mr. Singh paid $319,724while Mr. Venkatachalam spent only a pittance — $13,262.
The Loudoun races also attracted the attention of Ken Martin, chairman of the Minnesota Democrats and a competition favorite to become the next head of the Democratic National Committee. Saturday, Mr. Martin campaigns in the districts.
With Democrats expected to hold both Loudoun seats — Mr. Biden won both districts in 2020 and Vice President Kamala Harris won them easily in November — the stakes for the election are high. If Republicans were able to win either, they could prevent Democrats in the General Assembly from advancing state constitutional amendments on the right to abortion, same-sex marriage and the restoration of voting rights for felons.
Democrats hold a 20-19 advantage in the Virginia Senate and a 50-49 majority in the House of Delegates.
A wild card: Northern Virginia was hit Monday by the region’s biggest snowstorm in three years. Work crews are still clearing snow, a heavy task as polls open Tuesday morning. Loudoun County Public Schools will remain closed Tuesday.
Republicans are also defending a state Senate district west of Richmond that became vacant when John J. McGuire, who had served in the Legislature since 2018, was elected to Congress after oust Rep. Bob Good in a Republican primary election.
Republicans nominated Luther Cifers, a kayak entrepreneur, who is a strong favorite against Jack Trammell, a Democrat. sociology professor who lost a congressional race in 2014. Mr. Cifers spent about $200,000 on the race, 10 times more than Mr. Trammell’s investment.
Mr. Trump won about 60% of the vote in Mr. McGuire’s senatorial district, while Glenn Youngkin, the state’s Republican governor, received about 70% in his 2021 election.
