Quick take
Santa Cruz is still blue, but the deep blue veneer of the Bernie Sanders-backed city seems to be fading, at least on the local stage, where all the leading candidates represent moderate stooges against their left-wing opponents more progressive.
By about 4 p.m. Monday, most mail-in ballots will be counted and, likely, most of the local implications of the 2024 primary elections will become clearer.
With more than 12,000 ballots to be counted nationwide, and even more by mail through Tuesday, some races remain within a mathematical possibility of reversal; However, Lookout called two Santa Cruz City Council racess and the other two continued to move in the same political direction as the city’s 2022 races.
Santa Cruz is still blue, but the veneer of the deep blue Bernie Sanders-backed city seems to be fading, at least on the local stage. where all the main candidates represent moderate foils against their more progressive left-wing adversaries. The two races called belong to the holders: Shebreh Kalantari-Johnson defeated Joy Schendledecker for the District 3 City Council seat, and Sonja Brunner overcame a challenge from Hector Marin to retain her District 2 seat. According to Friday’s tally, Gabriela Trigueiro held a constant lead over David Tannaci in District 1 and Susie O’Hara remained ahead of Joe Thompson in District 5.
Local definitions of “progressive” and “moderate” have sparked some debate. The big distinction that followed the candidates throughout this election was their views on housing development, the future of Santa Cruz, and how the city should handle the state’s mandate to authorize the construction of 3,736 new housing units by 2031. Leading candidates (along with Thompson) each rejected Measure M, the ballot initiative that aimed to increase affordable housing requirements in new developments and require a citywide vote before any zoning changes could increase existing height limits. It seems the city’s political lines are increasingly tied to producing affordable housing and how best to do it. Should the city encourage developers to build and increase the supply of housing and try to meet demand? Or does the city adopt stricter regulations and require greater inclusion of affordable housing in private developments?
Candidate support tells us about their position on the political spectrum. Each of the major candidates was supported by the politically influential group Santa Cruz Together, a group that draws a lot of funding from major local real estate powerhouses such as the Santa Cruz Seaside Company and Swenson Builders. The latest candidates were endorsed by Santa Cruz for Bernie, included in the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America voting guide, and Approved by Service Employees International Union Local 521 (except Marin; SEIU 521 did not support the District 2 race).
In Santa Cruz, if trends continue, it will appear that the city has reached a politically moderate consensus toward which it has been moving since the 2020 recalls of council members Chris Krohn and Drew Glover. Over the past year and a half, council member Sandy Brown has represented the most left-leaning viewpoint among local policymakers, often casting the only dissenting vote to what has become a six-member majority. However, Brown terminated his contract at the end of this year. If current leads come to fruition, his successor will be O’Hara, who played a notable role in recalling Krohn and Glover by publicly testifying about the toxic work environment they were expected to create.
However, the outcome of O’Hara v. Thompson will not be final until we receive a tally of the 700 registration ballots cast on Election Day itself, which generally come from UC Santa Cruz students. Since Thompson is a third-year student at UCSC, many assumed they could get that student vote.
A South County political operative and former elected official I spoke with Friday wondered if this primary sounded “the death knell” for progressives across the county. Progressives in the city of Santa Cruz have suffered defeat after electoral defeat, seeing voters reject rent controls and tax measures for empty homes, recall progressive members of the city council and say no to a slate of candidates from deep blue in the last two elections.
In Thursday’s edition of “Let’s talk about the bay” on community radio station KSQD, I posed this question to Ami Chen Mills, a local progressive commentator, operator and former supervisor candidate. Chen Mills said the city is seeing the ripple effects of real estate and development’s hold on statewide politics. She said Santa Cruz Together, which has support from the development industry, and California YIMBY, whose mission to solve the housing crisis through development has garnered support from young voters, are aligned with those they support at the local level.
Chen Mills also highlighted the influence of a wealthier electorate.
“In some ways, Santa Cruz is already gentrified,” Chen Mills said. “I think more money often brings more public safety…more pro-business attitudes.” There has been a real shift here towards neoliberal policy.”
The question prompted a local caller, who identified herself as Nora and has worked with Chen Mills in the past, to offer her opinion. She said dismantling progressive attitudes has been a long time in the making.
“The progressive community in Santa Cruz has been out of sight, out of mind for probably close to 20 years,” Nora said. “This is the first time in the history of progressives in Santa Cruz County, over the last 15 years, that we have not had a unified progressive political organization. Santa Cruz Together is very well organized. We don’t have anything like that on our side of the ledger. I don’t know what the politics are in this community anymore.
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