Political signs are rife in the 78209 ZIP code, which includes Alamo Heights, on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020. Political signs were vandalized at Marion Liska’s home on Brightwood Place.
Bob Owen/San Antonio Express-NewsWith eight weeks left in this unprecedented election cycle, we’re looking at what past voter turnouts in the San Antonio area can tell us, like tea leaves for what lies ahead. To do so, we dug into data from our city’s small but mighty municipalities to assess what these microcosms can tell us about voting patterns in the region. We start by looking at the municipalities north of our city.
To the north of Bexar County, San Antonio’s suburbs much more closely mirror the national trends observed by respected researchers such as the Pew Research Center. Income and age appear to have weighed heavily in the votes cast, with the wealthiest leaning Democrats and those closer to the middle class leaning Republicans.
Additionally, voters in their late 50s were more likely to favor former President Donald Trump, while younger voters in their early to mid-40s opted for President Joe Biden. This almost perfectly mirrors Pew’s voting trends.which shows a shift from Democratic to Republican favoritism as voters move from their 40s to their 50s.
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According to data compiled by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, the number of young voters registered in Texas increased in July 2024. That’s a slight increase of 0.1% from 2020, and there’s a lack of new voter registration. In fact, the center’s data shows that there are 36% fewer new voters, ages 18 to 19, registered in Texas this year than in 2020.
But not all voters conformed to national trends. In 2020, the sleepy but thriving hamlet of Alamo Heights Transformed into Battlefield for Democrats and Republicans. Ultimately, Biden supporters outpaced Trump supporters in the region.
According to political science professor David Crockett, the difference in voter turnout between seniors and those born between the 1990s and early 2000s is 10 to 15 percent. Older voters are turning out in much greater numbers. While there are reports that millennials and Gen Z will now overtake baby boomers as the largest voting group in the United States, it is not yet clear whether youth turnout will sway the state or have a significant impact on the county.
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“It doesn’t seem like the end of the world to me, but it’s also true that new voters, who are typically 18 to 29, aren’t voting as much because they haven’t voted as much. They haven’t developed the habit of voting,” Crockett said. “Does that mean there’s going to be some kind of change in Bexar County? I don’t see anything that would make Bexar County less blue or less purple than it is.”
Fair Oaks Ranch, with its average income of $220,817, turned out for Trump in 2020.
MySAFar North: Trump 61.45%; Biden 36.78%
Fair Oaks Ranch: Trump gets 69.36%
Of the 4,252 residents of Fair Oaks Ranch in Bexar County who voted in 2020, 29.23% voted for Biden. Fair Oaks Ranch had a population of 9,908. The town has seen a large increase in population since the last election, reaching 11,905 in 2024.
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The median household income in Fair Oaks Ranch is $220,817, according to data collected by World Population Review. For comparison, the median household income in Bexar County is $65,854 in 2022, according to U.S. Census data. In Texas, that figure jumps to $72,284. That makes Fair Oaks Ranch more than three times the median income for the state and its county.
The median age in Fair Oaks Ranch is nearly 46.
Hill Country Village: Trump gets 65.72%
Of the 703 Hill Country Village residents who voted in 2020, 32.15% voted for Biden. Hill Country Village had a population of 941 in 2020. The town saw a slight increase in its population in 2024, with 949 now counted as residents.
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The median household income is $425,416, nearly six times that of Bexar County.
The median age in Hill Country Village is nearly 51.
Shavano Park: Trump 58.3%
Of the 2,637 Shavano Park residents who voted in 2020, 40.12% voted for Biden. Shavano Park had a population of 3,536 in 2020 and has seen a population increase since the last election, reaching 3,784 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Shavano Park is $307,290. Shavano Park residents earn on average more than four times the county and state median income.
The median age in Shavano Park is nearly 50.
Hollywood Park: Trump 52.41%
Of the 3,991 Hollywood Park residents who voted in 2020, 45.62% voted for Biden. Hollywood Park had a population of 3,131, and the polling places surrounding it extended beyond the city limits, making it difficult to track voter turnout. The city has seen a decline in population since the last election, dropping to 3,055 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Hollywood Park is $196,224. Hollywood Park is significantly above the state and county average income, with the median household income being more than twice the state and county average.
The median age in Hollywood Park is nearly 44.
Terrell Hills, a hamlet near Fort Sam in San Antonio, maintained its Trump voting record in 2020.
MySANorth Central: Trump 50.92%; Biden 47.12%
Alamo Heights: Biden 53.07%
Of the 4,758 Alamo Heights residents who voted in 2020, 45.1% voted for Trump. Alamo Heights had a population of 7,374 in 2020, and the city has seen a slight increase in population since the last election, reaching 7,496 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Alamo Heights is $256,262. Alamo Heights’ median income is significantly higher than the state and county averages.
The median age in Alamo Heights is nearly 41.
Terrell Hills: Trump 65.1%
Of the 2,026 Terrell Hills residents who voted in 2020, 33.17% voted for Biden. Terrell Hills had a population of 5,046 during the last presidential election. The city has seen very little population growth since the last election, dropping to 5,063 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Terrell Hills is $286,534. Terrell Hills’ income is significantly above the state and county median income.
The median age in Terrell Hills is nearly 42.
Olmos Park: Biden 50.69%
Of the 1,515 Olmos Park residents who voted in 2020, 47.92% voted for Trump. Olmos Park had a population of 2,179 during the last presidential election. The city has seen a decline in population since the last election, dropping to 2,155 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Olmos Park is $326,854. Olmos Park is significantly above the state and county median income.
The median age in Olmos Park is nearly 43.
Castle Hills: Biden 51.56%
Of the 2,622 Castle Hills residents who voted in 2020, 45.57% voted for Trump. Castle Hills had a population of 3,975 during the last presidential election. The city has seen a decline in population since the last election, dropping to 3,884 in 2024.
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According to data collected by World Population Review, the median household income in Castle Hills is $139,595. Castle Hills is significantly above the state and county median income.
The median age in Castle Hills is nearly 42.