EXPLANATION
A handful of U.S. states play a major role in the presidential election. Which ones are analysts watching closely this year?
They occupy an important place in any media coverage of the American presidential election: the coveted “swing states”.
On the rocky shores of a handful of bitterly contested states, the dreams of many aspiring national figures have been dashed and shattered.
As their name suggests, swing states – also known as key states – have the potential to influence the outcome of a national election.
This year seems no different, with the vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump locked in a tight battle in a number of must-win states.
But what is a swing state? And why do they play such an important role in presidential elections? We answer these questions and more in a short explanatory article.
What does the term “swing state” mean?
A swing state refers to a small group of states that are closely contested in presidential elections.
In American politics, presidential elections are decided by a weighted voting system known as the Electoral College, not the popular vote. Because of this, swing states can play an outsized role in deciding the candidate. result.
Each of the 50 states is allocated a certain number of votes in the Electoral College, based on the size of its population. A presidential candidate must obtain 270 electors to be elected.
Since most states consistently vote for one party or the other, a small number of key states can determine victory or defeat. Candidates tend to invest a lot of resources in courting voters in these states, rather than those in party strongholds.
Which states are considered swing states?
One of the defining characteristics of a swing state is its ambiguous political orientation. But once-contested states can begin to tilt in favor of one party or another.
This is why key states can change. Florida, for example, was considered a key state from the 1990s to 2020, but is now considered consistently Republican as the number of registered Republican voters increases.
This year, the most watched states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Minnesota. North Carolina is a new member of this group of key states.
What can polls tell us about swing states?
True to form, the Undecided States In this election cycle, Trump and Harris are in a tight race.
In Arizona, for example, polls showed the two candidates virtually tied, or Trump with a slight lead of one point or less.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, the race is also tied, with polls showing Harris in a tie or with a lead of less than 1 percent.
Minnesota is the only one of the potentially swing states where Harris maintains a comfortable lead, leading Trump by an average of five to eight points.
While voter sentiment could still shift in the coming weeks, these averages point to a tight race at the polls in November. Meanwhile, Harris and Trump have campaigned intensely in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, hoping to swing the odds in their favor.
