On February 9, Equatorians will go to the polls to elect their next president in what promises to be a substantial election for the country and the region in the broad sense. Whether after one or two voting cycles, regardless of the candidate who emerges as a winner will have the opportunity to determine the trajectory of the equator and help to shape security in the Western hemisphere.
Once known As a “island of peace”, the equator has become an edifying history of the speed with which a country can be destabilized by the power of corruption of organized crime, illicit trade and weak institutions. The next president will inherit from a country in crisis, faced with the challenges of reconstruction of confidence in government and the fight against crime that has made the equator most violent country of the region – while fighting against a economic recession.
Security and economic crises
In 2024, the equator reached the questionable distinction of becoming the Exporter number one cocaine in Latin America and the Caribbean in Europe – a shocking turnaround for a country that does not produce much medication itself. Sandwich between the two largest coca producers in the world – Colombia in the North and Peru in the South – Ecuador is strategically located as a transit center for international drug trafficking networks. Criminal Associated organizations With the Cartels of Mexico Jalisco Nueva Generali and Sinaloa, the Calia Calia cartel and the mafias in Europe, among other criminal groups, have exploited the country’s weak institutions and porous borders. Ecuador has become a Tour plaque commercial maritime ports.
The consequences were catastrophic. Almost seven thousand The inhabitants of the equator were killed in 2024 only, which made it the second deadliest year in the history of the country. To an estimate 95,000 People fled the country last year, and the territorial battles between the gangs supported by cartels abroad have transformed whole neighborhoods into war areas. Despite more than Thirty-five emergency states Declared in three administrations and the militarization of conflict zones under the current president, Daniel Noboa, the security crisis is far from being resolved.
Corruption has also permeated different levels of government, with police, soldiers, judges and prosecutors linked to criminal networks. State institutions are low, underfunded and poorly coordinated, while the capacities of law enforcement organizations are widely exceeded and poorly equipped to combat organized sophisticated crime operations. This problem is still exacerbated by the rampant The recruitment of children and adolescents from marginalized districts in organized crime, attracted by the promise of money, weapons and power.
Economic conditions offer little hope that the security crisis will improve. The economy of the equator contracted by 1.5% In the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, and the country faces a significant budget deficit. The next president will have to address the security crisis while trying to reconstruct a teeeding economy on the verge of collapse.
A high election but fragmented
Although security is the main concern of Ecuadorians, the upcoming elections have given little clarity on how candidates plan to fight against the crisis. The field is fragmented, with sixteen candidates in the running for the presidency, of which thirteen below 3%. The race should be summed up in a competition between the outgoing president, Noboa, and the opposition candidate Luisa González. However, none presented a detailed safety strategy or a complete roadmap to meet the urgent challenges of the equator.
Noboa’s campaign was obscured by controversy. His and a half warrant has been marked by multiple crises, including the declaration of an internal armed conflict against Twenty-two criminal gangsgeneralized energy shortages that have left cities without being able to Fourteen hours a dayand public dispute With Vice-President Veronica Abad. Noboa approval note fall From 72% in January 2024 to 45.9% by the end of the year. While his campaign depicts his administration as a force for change, criticism question His commitment to democratic standards and underline his controversial political alliances. In particular, the appearance of Noboa to the inauguration of American president Donald Trump on January 20 gave his candidacy a significant boost in the polls and collected in -depth coverage in the Equatorial Media.
In another strategic decision, Noboa organized a lunch January 29 with the Venezuelan politician from the opposition Edmundo González, that the government of the equator officially recognizes As elected president of Venezuela. Noboa also extended the invitations to four Ecuadorian prefects and two mayors of the opposition party Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana. However, the opposition party did not recognize González as president of Venezuela, and none of them accepted the invitations. This allowed Noboa to criticize their position on authoritarian regimes and the Venezuelan crisis, a question that strongly affected the equator, which almost took half-million Venezuelan refugees.
On the other hand, Luisa González, the candidate for the Ecuadorian opposition for Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, concentrated her campaign on nostalgia for the years of power of her party under the former president Rafael Correa. It was a period when crime rates were lower and the economy was stronger. But his association with Correa – who remains in exile in Brussels after being convicted corruption– has also limited his call. As she resonates with older voters who remember Correa’s presidency, she had trouble connecting with younger voters who get married 25% of the electorate and demand new ideas and solutions.
A prospective approach to the challenges of Ecuador
The next president will face the monumental task of dismantling the well -funded and very connected operations of organized crime while restoring confidence in government and revitalizing the economy. These challenges require more than the militarization of the police or the declaration of emergency states; They require systemic reforms to strengthen state institutions, create opportunities for vulnerable populations and eliminate corruption that supports criminal networks.
The equator cannot attack this crisis in itself. The transnational nature of organized crime requires international cooperation, in particular with the United States, one of the largest consumers cocaine. The Trump administration has already shown that the fight against drug cartels will be at the center of its diplomacy with Latin America – a program that could open the way to a closer collaboration with the equator. The United States and Ecuador have a shared interest in combating drug trafficking, resolving the illicit trade flow and tackling the crises of violence and migration that afflict the region. However, this election could also determine the allies of the equator in this effort. While González alluded to the alignment with the The catches Nations – The grouping composed of Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa and several countries that have joined in the past year – Noboa has requested stronger links with the United States and The International Monetary Fund.
A sustainable solution must start with the reform of fragmented and under-strengthened laws’ application of the equator. The establishment of a specialized working group to understand great value objectives and strengthen international agreements both with neighboring countries and the United States will be essential. Equally critical consists in approaching the deep causes of crime – poverty, inequality and lack of education – which made the youth of the equator vulnerable to recruitment by criminal gangs. Faced with serious security and economic challenges which cannot be confronted alone, the next president of the equator will serve a four -year term, but their leadership will be essential in the formation of the country’s long -term trajectory.
Isabel Chiriboga is Deputy Director of Adrienne Arsht America Center of the Atlantic Council.
Upon reading
Image: Guayaquil, Ecuador. The first electoral simulation of the 2025 general elections at the Squalian University Polytechnic on January 19, 2025. The general elections of the equator will have a record number of observers, with 943 people, both national and foreign, registered to monitor the Electoral process, according to a declaration of the National Electoral Council (CNE), organizer of the elections. Carlos Silva / Pool / America America Agency Agency via Reuters Connect.
