During the presidential election on Sunday, the Ecuadorian people sent a clear signal of their hopes of economic stability, continuity and closer alignment with the Western allies re -elected President Daniel Noboa. With 97% counted voting bulletins and a participation rate of 83%, Noboa and the Maria José Pinto running mate obtained more than 55% From the vote, a margin of 11 percentage points on the challenger Luisa González, the heir to the populist heritage of former president Rafael Correa. González has denied Recognize the results and lightens that the results were fraudulent. However, his party did not present any concrete evidence in support of this complaint. Meanwhile, the National Electoral Council and international observers report No sign of generalized irregularities. However, the claim feeds tensions in an already polarized electorate and could potentially lead to social troubles.
On the other hand with Noboa, González had reported a drift of the Western allies, including with statements that it would not be recognize Edmundo González’s electoral victory against dictator Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and her with her The flirting of the party With the withdrawal of the dollar as an equator currency. Noboa’s victory, despite his political light campaign, embodies stability and predictability, two aspects that are essential for international cooperation.
Ecuador is desperately needing international cooperation with partners such as the United States to slow down the country’s crime wave and stimulate economic growth. Here is what to expect for American-Ecuador relations now that Noboa will keep his post in Quito.
Mano-Dura– But supported by the American muscle?
Security will be the basis of any reinforced partnership for the future of the equator. The Noboa government was firmly rooted in a “Mano-Dura“(Iron Fist) political, declaring an internal armed conflict against Twenty-two criminal gangs In January 2024 and classify them as terrorist organizations. Many of these groups work Directly with transnational drug cartels, including the Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación du Mexico, and even the Albanian mafias; furthermore. The intensification of the operations of these groups has led to a peak of violence, in particular a scale 1,300 homicides During the first fifty days of 2025. Recurrent emergency states and military deployments have become commonplace, especially in port cities such as Guayaquil, while the government is fighting to recover control of strategic commercial roads. As a government widen His efforts to ban drugs, these criminal groups have diversified in other illicit markets, including arms and trafficking in human beings as well as mining and exploitation of illegal exploitation to maintain their operations and increase their resilience.
Noboa signals a desire to align the doctrine of equator security with Washington. He did so by offering the use of border drones and asking for help from the American forces, apparently preparing the port of Manta (which hosted an American air base, closed by Correa in 2009) for their arrival. This commitment aligns well with American regional priorities. In the wake of the increase in transnational crime and drug trafficking across the hemisphere, the Trump administration – very concerned about border security and containing drug trafficking – is to support governments willing to act. Thus, the opening of Noboa to cooperation with the United States, in particular its desire to integrate American intelligence and surveillance technology into domestic operations, could be interested.
However, the backdrop of Noboa’s second mandate will not lack challenges. The equator remains blocked in a multidimensional crisis. The economy contracted in three in four quarters in 2024, the third displaying a 1.5% decrease in the gross domestic product. The Ecuador had a $ 726 million Budget deficit in the first quarter of 2025, marking the third largest deficit in a decade, and serious electricity shortages caused breakdowns fourteenmore economic prospects. Add to that the challenges of the governance of a polarized district – of which 44.35% voted for his opponent – and a country still traumatized by the assassination of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio during the 2023 elections.
But the opportunity also strikes. While the risk of a country of Ecuador, as measured by the JP Morgan investment bank, has reached a summit of fifteen months of 1,900 points In the days ahead of the elections, Ecuadorian sovereign Bond prices have climbed After Noboa’s victory, indicating strong investor confidence. This is revealing: markets, external observers and potential allies see Noboa as a stabilization force. Despite a fragmented national assembly – where the opposition party, Citizen Revolution, holds Sixty-seven seats Compared to the sixty -six held by Noboa’s party – the significant margin of election results suggest that many voters who supported other candidates in the first round supported Noboa in the second. This can open the way to political alliances and cooperation, allowing the adoption of key security and pro-investment legislation. For Washington, it is an open door for strategic cooperation extended to economic, political and military levels.
Tackle trade
Trade will also be on the agenda of Noboa for cooperation with the United States. The Trump administration imposed a 10% price on Ecuadorian goods; However, it is important to note that, unlike other countries in the region, such as Peru and Colombia, equator has no free trade with the United States. This means that the 10% rate will be added to the existing prices on other products, while the goods which have previously entered the rights of rights will now face at a rate of 10%. The equator currently has a negative trade balance of $ 644.5 million With the United States, but Ecuador’s economic vulnerability makes a vital partner in the United States. The American market takes an important part of the non-petroleum exports of the equator, mainly agricultural products such as shrimp, cocoa, bananas and flowers. If prices are increasing on countries that argue in the supply of these products in the United States, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, that Trump planned to reach much higher rates before a recent break of eighty days-exporters of the skidor could capitalize on their comparative advantage. However, the equator is still disadvantaged on other products which face higher samples such as Roses, broccoli and tuna. Consequently, the equator will probably evolve trade as an essential component of cooperation – the offer of Washington and Quito can establish predictable commercial arrangements based on rules.
On this note, the apparent alignment of Noboa and the proximity to the Trump administration are important. At a time when the American migration policy is tightening and the hemisphere moves towards a more pragmatic leadership on this front, Noboa’s actions report that the bilateral relationship will be built on strategic alignment rather than an ideological affinity. While Noboa’s visit to Mar-A-Lago on March 29 (reputed “friendly) Was blamed in certain circles, he won Noboa’s political capital at home. Trump’s meeting also Mis González in a disownship Correa’s statements After The United States has imposed visa prohibitions On him, his vice-president and their immediate families for corruption. Noboa has built a largely victorious coalition with older voterssome of which expressed the fear of unpredictability that accompanies populist choices.
What change will take
The list of upcoming tasks for Noboa is important: its administration will have to balance a $ 36 billion The budget in an increase in crime and violence, the drop in oil income and the increase in debt payments. The promise of better security, economic reactivation and the modernization of infrastructure cannot be completed without external support and financing of multilateral lenders and foreign investment, including the United States.
In addition, there is a risk that any long -term alignment with Washington looking for the improvement of security and the economy will not be able to resist the volatile interior political landscape of the equator. The composition of the National Assembly, according to the way in which alliances and seats shake before the day of the inauguration, will be essential to determine the difficulties or opportunities that Noboa will be confronted. At the same time, it must demonstrate its ability to navigate in an increasingly polarized environment. To succeed, he will have to find a meticulous balance between domestic legitimacy and external commitment, supporting his rhetoric with a coherent action.
The presidency of Noboa may not have started with a master plan, but his second term will begin with a unique set of geopolitical alignments. The question is now whether it can transform them into tangible gains for the equator. For the United States, it is a rare chance to engage with a disputed and democratically elected government in a region assailed by instability. For the equator, it is a chance not only to restore interior stability, but also to continue to fight against the security crisis with the United States as a partner.
In a region where friendships blow with political winds, the equator under Noboa can draw a course in pragmatic collaboration and strategic partnership – if the two parties are ready to operate.
Isabel Chiriboga is Deputy Director of Adrienne Arsht America Center of the Atlantic Council.
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Image: the president and candidate of the equator to re -election, Daniel Noboa, is addressed to the media, because the electoral council says that he won the presidential election, in Santa Elena, Ecuador, April 13, 2025. Photo via Reuters / David Diaz Arcos.
