Catholics across the globe are speculating about who will follow in the footsteps of Pope Francis, who died earlier this week.
Whoever becomes the new leader of the Catholic Church will instantly become perhaps the most recognizable religious leader in the world. The pope has historically been not only a spiritual leader, but somebody who plays a major role in influencing politics. Even in 2025, when fewer Americans identify as religious, the pope will still be a moral authority—but his direct political power remains more limited, experts told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
Pope Francis frequently spoke about political issues, taking what some may view as politically progressive views on issues like immigration and climate change and more traditionally conservative viewpoints on matters like abortion. He also went further than previous popes in voicing tolerance toward the LGBTQ+ community.
His potential successors represent myriad viewpoints on some of these matters. U.S. conservatives are hoping for somebody like Cardinal Raymond Burke, who has praised President Donald Trump in the past, while some more progressive Catholics are looking to somebody like Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines due to his past comments supporting tolerance toward the LGBTQ+ community.
While a pope’s comments on these issues are typically more about church teachings than elections or specific policy matters, they do have the ability to shape how some voters perceive political issues. The Vatican’s stance on abortion—for instance—has been particularly influential.
There are an estimated 1.4 billion Catholics globally and more than 50 million in the United States.
What to Know
Pope’s Symbolic Power
The pope does not necessarily possess a great deal of “hard power,” but he certainly serves as a moral authority for followers and leaders across the globe. The Vatican is also an observer to the United Nations, which lends the Pope some authority on international issues as well.
Michele Dillon, professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, told Newsweek the pope has “important” symbolic power that may not translate directly into changing the majority of Catholics’ minds on political issues.
“Ultimately, the pope has very limited political power in terms of shifting peoples’ opinions on an issue,” she said, noting that while people “make up their own minds,” his moral guidance is still helpful to many Catholics.
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She pointed to Francis’ comments about gay rights in the church as something that “changed the discourse” on the issue for many Catholics. Pope Francis allowed for the blessings of same-sex union, urged parents to support their gay children, and allowed gay men to become priests if they stayed celibate. He said transgender people could be baptized but also spoke negatively about “gender ideology.”
A 2022 AP-NORC poll found that the majority of Catholics don’t necessarily look to the church to influence how they vote. The poll of 358 Catholics found that 68 percent said the church has been influential in their life, but only 35 percent said it has influenced their political views.
But when it comes to social views, 55 percent said they believe the church has been influential.
Margaret Susan Thompson, professor of history and political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, told Newsweek that it is rare for a pope to speak out about a particular political issue, but that their teachings may provide Catholics with a context in which to think about global issues.
“We see that with Pope Francis when he talked about the environment and taking care of the planet. That’s had a pretty profound influence, although he didn’t tell people who to vote for or particular agenda items that nations ought to adopt,” she said. “But he talked about care for the planet, care for creation. So that’s a political influence, but it’s not somebody telling you who to vote for. I think that’s an important distinction.”
She also noted that while former President John F. Kennedy, the first Catholic president, faced questions about whether he’d have “dual loyalties,” people felt that was a less important question for former President Joe Biden, who was also Catholic and said his beliefs were shaped by the church.
Robert Orsi, professor of history at Northwestern University, told Newsweek there is a “certain amount of influence [that] comes with the office” and that the response to Pope Francis’ death showed he was “obviously valued and loved for his witness. Still, he said it’s a “question” about whether people listen to his influence on these issues.
Opus Dei—Influential Catholic Group in Conservative Politics
The Opus Dei group has become more influential than ever during President Trump’s tenure, Gareth Gore, author of Opus: The Cult of Dark Money, Human Trafficking, and Right-Wing Conspiracy inside the Catholic Church, told Newsweek.
Opus Dei is a Catholic group whose stated goal is to “contribute to that evangelizing mission of the Church, by fostering among Christians of all social classes a life fully consistent with their faith, in the middle of the ordinary circumstances of their lives and especially through the sanctification of their work,” according to their website.
However, the group has been the subject of controversy and has faced allegations of wrongdoing. Gore said the group, which he described as an “abusive cult,” has been accused of “serious crimes including human trafficking and labor exploitation.”
“Opus Dei has spent decades seeking to infiltrate the American conservative [movement] and has poured money and resources into penetrating Washington’s corridors of power—actively courting supreme court justices, senators, congresspeople and other power brokers. During the two Trump administrations, the group has become more powerful than ever before,” Gore said.
He noted that individuals with alleged ties to the group, such as Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, and lobbyist Leonard Leo, have “huge influence over the way that America is on.”
Gore noted that Pope Francis had been in a “standoff” with the group, which was set to vote on new statutes over the coming weeks. Prior to his death, the group put a hold on the new statute votes.
“It is clearly hoping that the next pope will be more amenable to Opus Dei, that he will water down the reforms,” Gore said. “Many suspected that Opus Dei was dragging its feet in the hope that Francis might pass before he could push through serious reform of the organization. If true, that tactic may well have worked.”
Pope on the Global Stage
The pope, historically, has a voice on the global stage. This was demonstrated in modern history by Pope John Paul II, who was born in Poland. His 1979 visit to the country was seen as a turning point for communism in the nation over concerns about religious freedom. He became a spiritual inspiration for the anti-communist movement.
While that is a direct example of recent papal influence, other popes have also weighed in on global matters in recent years.
Pope Francis used his position to make calls for peace amid global turmoil and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, or Israel and Hamas, making calls to protect civilians amid global conflicts. He called Gaza’s only Catholic church daily amid the war.
Peter Cajka, professor at the University of Notre Dame, told Newsweek these critiques mattered and that the pope has “direct access” to politicians and world leaders, even if he isn’t diplomatically involved in changing the wars.
“I’m also just struck that the violence carries on,” he said. “Leaders take the critique from the pope, the critique of his moral leadership and some of his diplomatic leadership—of course, the Vatican is a diplomatic center for these things—and yet states go on and carry these things out. There’s a tension there.”
Orsi said the Vatican, in many ways, invented diplomacy during the Middle Ages and still has a diplomatic corps who meet with world leaders who do important work “trying to nudge governments in the direction of peace.” Still, they come from “outside the local context of the world of politics.”
“He’s holding a transcendent standard that others can choose to follow or not,” he said.
Catholic Church’s ‘Institutional’ Power
It’s not publicly known exactly how rich the Catholic Church is, as its wealth is wrapped in assets like real estate and art, but estimates suggest it’s worth at least $10 to $15 billion.
Cajka said this wealth has translated into institutionalization through parishes, colleges, hospitals or immigrant services. This “institutional power” still has a “major influence on politics,” Cajka said. This helps the church establish leaders, college presidents and intellectual leaders.
“The influential apparatus they create contests politics, but also gives them influence and access to power,” he said. “If you just look at how many Catholics are in Congress or how many Catholics are on the Supreme Court, you can see how this Catholic influential structure is producing powerful people.”
There are 150 members of the House of Representatives who identify as Catholic, according to the Pew Research Center, and six of the nine Supreme Court justices identify as Catholic.
What People Are Saying
Gore told Newsweek: “The pope is the head of the Catholic Church and the direct successor to Saint Peter, the man who quite literally—according to the Bible—holds the keys to heaven. As such, he has enormous influence and authority over the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. During his papacy, Francis successfully used that authority to shift the global political agenda on important issues of social and economic justice—as well as climate change.”
Dilon told Newsweek: “It is important that church keep articulating what is required, what the common good requires…Even if the church, as it does, has limited political influence, it is important to keep articulating what it stands for on this range of issues.”
Former President Barack Obama, who spoke about Pope Francis’ leadership after his death in a post to X: “Pope Francis was the rare leader who made us want to be better people. In his humility and his gestures at once simple and profound—embracing the sick, ministering to the homeless, washing the feet of young prisoners—he shook us out of our complacency and reminded us that we are all bound by moral obligations to God and one another.”
What Happens Next
The funeral for Pope Francis has been set for Saturday, April 26, at 10 a.m. local time (4 a.m. ET) in Saint Peter’s Square.
The election of a new pope will take place after the funeral. The cardinals vote by secret ballot up to four times each day until a new pope is chosen. This will go on until two-thirds of the cardinals agree on a new pope.
Each time a pope is not chosen, the ballots will be burned with chemicals to produce black smoke to signify that voting will continue. Once the pope is chosen, the ballots will be burned with chemicals to produce white smoke.
The most recent elections have taken only a few days. Pope Francis was elected after five ballots, while it took only four ballots to elect Pope Benedict XVI in 2005.
