For the first time in living memory, American political observers are captivated by the outcome of the Republican primary in Washington DC this weekend.
In this city – stronghold of the Democratic Party – few people usually notice the results of Republican primary elections. But with 19 convention delegates up for grabs, this could be the last chance for Nikki Haley and moderate Republicans to claim at least one victory in their efforts to derail the former president Donald Trump.
That it has come to this illustrates the deep despair of moderate “Never Trump” Republicans over the state of their party’s presidential race. Trump celebrated three more victories on Saturday: slam dunks in Michigan (68.1 percent of the vote), Idaho (84.9 percent) and Missouri (100 percent of the 924 caucus votes cast).
The question is no longer whether Trump will be the Republican standard-bearer in November, but when he can claim to have crossed the threshold and become the party’s presumptive nominee.
Mathematically, that’s unlikely to happen this week, although “Super Tuesday” — when the race goes national, with primaries and caucuses held in 15 states and the U.S. territory of American Samoa — will bring it much closer. of its objective. In no state can Haley expect her Tuesday to be particularly “great,” with Trump comfortably in the lead across the board.
It could be next week, on Tuesday, March 12, when Hawaii, Mississippi, Georgia and Washington state vote in the Republican primaries, that Trump crosses the finish line, having received more than half of the 2 429 delegates to this summer’s nomination convention.
Whenever it happens, it will be soon. And at that point, a more than seven-month election battle between Trump and President Joe Biden will begin.
Biden spent the weekend at the Camp David presidential retreat, working on two intractable problems: how to solve the crisis in the Middle East, and how to revive his flagging political fortunes. The latter could prove even more complicated than the first, after a Siena College Survey ordered for The New York Times revealed the depth of the president’s problems.
The survey shows that Trump now leads Biden 48 to 43 percent nationally, with 10 percent of voters undecided or refusing to share their choice with pollsters. Less than a quarter of voters said they thought the country was “going in the right direction,” with 61% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 saying he was “going in the right direction.” “too old” to serve effectively. He has a record disapproval rating of 47 percent, and none of the president’s efforts to turn things around have had an impact.
Biden’s next big opportunity comes Thursday night, when he delivers his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress — and, more importantly, to a national audience on every major broadcast network and streaming. He has no room for error, or any sort of stumble – physical or figurative – during the prime-time event.
No single speech can entirely solve the president’s problems, but pressure on Biden is growing as polls show 10% of Biden’s 2020 voters now say they plan to support Trump. Congressman Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat, called the “panic level” at the White House “high.” Policy: “Personally, I’m less panicked than most…but I also wish Biden and his team were stronger campaigners. »
Democrats may find some comfort in the determination of “Never Trump” voters to maintain their position. In New Hampshire, 35 percent of Republican primary voters said they would not support the former president under any circumstances in November. Nationally, polls suggest that at least a fifth of Republicans may be out of Trump’s reach, but that number could shift one way or the other, depending on the tone of the long campaign ahead.
A Bloomberg poll taken last week in key battleground states where elections will be won or lost found that “Biden is too old, but Trump is too dangerous“. The survey finds that Trump is ahead in seven key states, but is a new indicator that the number of “double hatred» (the voters who disapprove of the two men) remains consistent.
In an election in which millions of Americans would prefer neither candidate run, the outcome could depend on which of the two candidates is less hated than the other.
