A second Trump administration does not bode well for US-Africa relations
The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election could significantly alter the direction and substance of African capitals’ bilateral relations with Washington.
The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration has made significant efforts to course-correct and effectively reframe the U.S.-Africa relationship, primarily through its 2022 strategy towards sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives include promoting open societies, producing democracy and security dividends, promoting economic opportunity and supporting climate adaptation.
This strategy was reinforced by numerous high-level working visits to the continent, mobilization and facilitation of new investment and trade agreements, and renewed commitments to support democratic transitions and processes. These efforts were brought to fruition at the December 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, where delegations from forty-nine African countries converged in Washington to discuss and explore strengthened bilateral relations based on shared interests and values. .
More recently, the United States calls for reform of the UN Security Councilwhich now include their official support for two permanent seats for African countries, further underscored the current administration’s recognition and desire to deepen bilateral relations with African states.
Despite these efforts, relations with some African states have been strained by broader geopolitical developments, such as the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Palestine, Russia and Ukraine, as well as the ongoing conflict in the Sahel. Moreover, these relationships have been underscored by concomitant efforts by the United States (and other major world powers) to curry favor with Southern states over their particular worldviews regarding the future of the international order. .
If Kamala Harris emerges victorious in November, it is likely that the content and direction of US policy and strategy towards the continent will continue as under the Biden administration.
In fact, this comprehensive strategy could be pursued with even greater investment and vigor by Washington to secure key allies, ward off the influence of China and Russia, and ensure broad continental support for its primary objectives of foreign and security policy over the coming decades – as enshrined in its 2022 National Security Strategy.
In this scenario, major U.S. initiatives such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the Just Transition Partnerships, and more recently launched efforts like the Initiative for Democratic and Political Transitions in Africa and the 21st Century Partnership for security of Africa, will likely stimulate more substantial bilateral engagements. between Washington and African capitals.
In contrast, a second Donald Trump administration would likely introduce a much greater degree of political uncertainty.
The foreign policy of the first Trump administration, characterized by America First nationalism, unilateralism, myopia and explicit derision directed against certain African states and their peopleshas considerably deteriorated bilateral relations between many African capitals and Washington.
During this period, Africa, and particularly sub-Saharan Africa, appeared to be under-prioritized by the US foreign policy establishment, with a notable lack of high-level exchanges. The Trump administration had unclear foreign policy priorities and goals for the region and lacked significant new initiatives. There have also been considerable delays in appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts across the continent.
As a result, African leaders view the prospect of a second Trump administration as a sign of a further shift in U.S. foreign policy toward the region. This outcome would call into question the various initiatives, commitments and priorities established for the continent under Biden, and would likely result in a sharp setback in the future of meaningful international cooperation.
