A.Republicans thought they would win a New York state byelection by nominating a former American-Israeli Democrat originally from Ethiopia. Given the influx of migrants into New York and Democratic divisions between the Jewish electorate and pro-Palestinian progressives, the choice of candidate ultimately did not help. Tuesday February 13, the Republicans lost. Democrats have won election after election, especially since the Supreme Court struck down the federal right to abortion. This is a warning to those who are rejoicing at the announced return of Donald Trump: nothing is certain.
Of course, the expected duel will take place. Barring a miracle, no one believes that the former Republican president will be excluded by the courts. The trials have no impact on his popularity and sometimes seem trivial, like the one expected in New York for the clandestine purchase of an escort girl with campaign funds. Barring a major health accident, the oldest president of the United States in office, Joe Biden, an octogenarian with slurred speech, will be the Democratic candidate, alongside his unpopular vice-president Kamala Harris, whom he has not wanted to replace so as not to offend women and the black community.
And yet, what a record, especially seen from the left! Full employment, growth, innovation and industrial revitalization. Inflation is under control, purchasing power is increasing again and the country benefits from abundant energy resources. “It’s the economy, stupid,” adviser James Carville told Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, as he set out to defeat patrician George Bush after the end of the Cold War and victory in the first war in Iraq, but in a context of economic recession.
Surviving a crisis
Many analysts explain that the standard recipe for success no longer works in a world ultra-polarized on “values”. In reality, this has always worked, especially when households tangibly feel economic hardship (unemployment, inflation and gas prices). This is how Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George Bush (1992) were defeated in times of recession or stagflation.
Trump too. The Republican certainly had a very prosperous start to his mandate, but by the time of the November 2020 elections, Covid-19 had put millions of people out of work, while no vaccine existed. Let’s bet that if the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had been announced two weeks earlier, just before the elections, the result could have been different.
Why does Biden remain unpopular? Perhaps because American households, who have been repeatedly told that recession and unemployment are imminent, do not yet have the necessary perspective. Purchasing power only started to increase again when inflation fell drastically in 2023.
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