By Katty KayAmerican special envoy
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The first votes in the US presidential race will take place on Monday in the state of Iowa, when Republicans will choose who they want to take on Democratic President Joe Biden. This is an election watched not only in the United States but around the world.
Having recently spent a few weeks in Europe, the topic of the US presidential election was a constant subject of intense curiosity and concern among the people I spoke to. And it’s no wonder.
The United States is currently involved in two hot wars, in Ukraine and Gaza. Meanwhile, relations between the United States and China have deteriorated and tensions in the Asia-Pacific region have increased.
Closer to home, Central American countries are in the spotlight as growing numbers of migrants attempt to reach the United States through a border that appears more porous by the day. And this week, U.S.-led airstrikes took place against Houthi rebels in Yemen.
There is almost no region in the world where American leadership does not matter.
The prospect of a return to power by Republican Donald Trump, with his “America First” foreign policy agenda, adds even more uncertainty to an already tumultuous picture.
Some countries are impatiently awaiting his return. But many of America’s allies fear more the possible return of an unorthodox president with whom they had difficulty dealing the first time.
Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee and is also co-chairman of President Biden’s re-election campaign, told me that in every meeting he has had with foreign leaders or secretaries of State at Foreign Affairs, they at one point raise the question of whether American voters might well turn again to President Donald Trump.
So while this may be a US election, other countries are deeply invested in the outcome.
In no capital in the world are they following this campaign with as much attention as in kyiv. The fate of the war undoubtedly depends on its outcome.
“If the next president’s policy – whoever he is – is different towards Ukraine, colder or more inward-looking… then I think those signals will greatly affect the course of the war,” he said recently. President Volodymr Zelensky.
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He did not name names, but Mr. Trump said he would end the war “within 24 hours” of his election, although he did not explain how. The Ukrainians fear that he will push for negotiations that would not further their cause.
That would be welcomed in Russia, where the media has been particularly supportive of Trump and some have criticized efforts to exclude him from elections in 16 U.S. states.
The NTV channel, controlled by the Kremlin, was scathing. “This is real interference in the elections and an attack on democracy on the part of the Americans themselves. No Russian or Chinese would dream of this,” said NTV correspondent Anton without irony Ponomarev to viewers.
The implications of a change in U.S. policy would be felt beyond Ukraine’s borders and would particularly worry Russia’s neighboring European states.
Further down the line, other U.S. allies may decide that the United States is not a reliable security partner. A US senator has raised the possibility that Japan could develop its own nuclear arsenal if America stops aiding Ukraine. Tokyo, he told me, might decide that the U.S. nuclear security umbrella simply has too many loopholes.
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There is also the possibility that a re-elected President Trump will follow through on his desire to remove America from NATO, thereby crippling the military alliance. Two people connected to the Trump campaign told me he plans to do just that.
Europeans, said Senator Coons, are right to be concerned.
“The United States and its European allies have an important common challenge. Together we must show the world that Putin cannot outlast us and that (Chinese) President Xi’s vision of authoritarianism is not the best for the world.”
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Learn more about the US elections
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The other hot war, the conflict in the Middle East, has clearly shaken up American politics in different ways: Young Americans and Arab Americans are so opposed to the White House’s support for Israel that Joe Biden could even lose a state because of this during the elections.
But perhaps even more surprising is the Israeli reaction to American policy. Israelis overwhelmingly preferred Trump to Biden, but a December 2023 survey from the Midgam group showed a dramatic shift in support for President Biden.
An investigation carried out in the Israeli media shows that the paradox is not lost on Israelis: their new love for Joe Biden could harm his chances of being re-elected. The business daily Calcalist headlined “Biden’s support for Israel strengthens Trump as elections approach.”
Other Middle Eastern countries, however, could welcome a change in Washington.
During the 2020 campaign, for example, Joe Biden called Saudi Arabia a pariah state. Then, a few months into his presidency, the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan allowed the Taliban to take firm control of the country.
“I think our Middle East partners would universally prefer a Republican president to Biden,” says Matthew Kroenig, a former US Department of Defense official who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank.
For some Middle Eastern leaders, a transition away from Joe Biden could mean less interference and criticism from Washington.
A Republican president, Kroenig says, may be less inclined to criticize Israel for its handling of the war in Gaza or to lecture Saudi Arabia about its human rights record.
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Independent Senator Angus King has just returned from an all-party senatorial delegation to the region. He told me that the political paralysis in the United States was also seen abroad.
“Hamas and Putin now have similar strategies: wait until the West loses its will and wait until America is consumed by its own divisive policies.”
From Beijing to Buenos Aires, people are tracking the fortunes of U.S. election candidates and following the results. It has a global audience like no other election. Because America still matters like no other country.
But this sixth presidential election seems to have a more intense international dimension than ever.
Partly because the United States is very involved in many parts of the world, but also because of what happened after the last crisis. The events of January 6, 2021 revealed the precariousness of American democracy.
The world now wants to know how well the country will fare in its next big democratic test.
In addition to the multitude of crises America already faces, the next president will also have to deal with the unexpected.
2023 was the hottest year on record. 2022 brought war to Europe. The year 2020 was marked by a global pandemic that no one predicted.
The United States cannot tackle any of these problems without strong global alliances – which is why the world’s reaction to this election doesn’t just matter to the rest of the world.
This matters for America too.
Additional reports by BBC monitoring which tracks, translates and analyzes the world’s media for BBC News, governments, NGOs and other international organizations