Although people found themselves perplexed (or amused) by the arcane rituals at the coronation of King Charles III, the process of choosing a president of the United States may actually be more difficult to understand. In this blog post, I will explain why much of the world’s media attention has focused on school gymnasiums and church halls in the sparsely populated US state of Iowa January 15, 2024and the small village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire (population six) a week later. A key point that emerges from this explainer is that every state (and territory as well as the District of Columbia) is different. These state-level decisions define the nature of the selection process, who can participate, and when voting takes place.
Basically, votes in state-level nominating processes are used to award party delegates to candidates. Much like the indirect method of electing the president via the electoral college, the party’s candidates for president are not elected directly, but rather are elected by these delegates at the party’s national convention, which is usually held at the end of summer. As with everything else, states and parties vary in the methods by which they allocate delegates (e.g. proportionally, winner takes all, etc.). The candidate with the most delegates will be officially nominated at the convention.
In 2024, there will be an astonishing 295 days between the first votes to choose the parties’ presidential nominees (the Iowa caucuses on January 15) and the federal election on November 5. In the meantime, each state will organize a process by which the population will participate in the selection of partisan candidates for the various positions that will be contested in the federal elections.
The Democratic and Republican parties choose their candidates through one of two types of electoral processes: a primary or a caucus. These election processes take place in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and United States territories (such as Puerto Rico and Guam). THE caucus system involves members of a political party (more details below) meeting in person at the local level, exchanging views, often coming together in groups supporting one candidate or another, and finally voting by secret ballot. Caucuses are organized by the political parties themselves. In contrast, a primary is essentially a state-level intra-party election. Thus, primary elections usually take place (but not always) organized by the state government rather than the political party.
There is a complex relationship between national parties, state-level party organizations, and state-level government officials in organizing primaries and caucuses. This dynamic was well illustrated this year by the confusing situation which developed in Nevada. In an event that may be unique in American history, Nevada held both a primary and a caucus, with different candidates from the same parties participating in both processes. The state government held a primary (in which Donald Trump did not participate) while the Republican Party held a caucus (in which Nikki Haley did not participate). The Republican Party recognize only the result of the caucus, and did not allow candidates who ran in the primaries to be candidates in the caucus.
A key point here is that political party membership in the United States can be a fairly loose association. In many states, when citizens register to vote, they register as members of one of the parties. States vary in how this affects the presidential candidate selection process. For example, Florida There is a “closed primary” in which citizens can only vote in the primary election of the party to which they declared their affiliation when registering to vote. It is not possible to change political affiliation in the month preceding an election (including a primary election). On the other hand, in that of Iowa caucus citizens are limited to participating in the caucus of the party with which they registered, but it is possible to change party affiliation on caucus day. On the opposite side of Florida (and there are many nuances between the two) is Texaswhich holds “open primary” elections in which voters must choose which party to vote for in the primary, but party registration does not limit their choice (e.g., registered Democrats can vote in the Republican primary).
Although very few delegates have been selected so far in the primaries and caucuses, most early candidates had dropped out (or “suspended their campaign”) by early February. Still, it can be helpful to understand how many candidates have launched a formal campaign. On the Republican side, 13 candidates launched a national campaign for the nomination. It’s rare for a president in his first term to face a viable challenge for the party nomination, but two other candidates have launched campaigns for the Democratic nomination. Beyond the candidates Competing for the nominations of the two major parties have been at least three independent or third-party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. The table below lists the major party candidates who launched a national campaign. There are many more candidates who have (and will appear) on the ballot in some states. Likewise, a candidate’s decision to suspend their campaign does not always remove their name from the primary ballots.
Republican Party |
Democratic Party |
Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Nikki Haley |
Dean Phillips |
Ron DeSantis* |
Marianne Williamson* |
Asa Hutchinson* |
|
Vivek Ramaswamy* |
|
Chris Christie* |
|
Doug Burgum* |
|
Tim Scott* |
|
Mike Pence* |
|
Larry Elder* |
|
Perry Johnson* |
|
Will hurt* |
|
François Suarez* |
|
*campaign suspended
Although there has been a sense of inevitability of another showdown between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the general election, the nomination process on the Republican side began early and continues to be somewhat uncertain. THE first debate between the candidates for the Republican nomination took place in August 2023, eleven months before the party convention in July 2024. From the start of the Republican nomination process, Donald Trump seemed to be the most likely candidate. However, litigation in state and federal courts will impact his ability to run for office, even if he is the Republican nominee. In a few months, the Supreme Court will govern on whether or not Donald Trump is barred from holding federal office because of his encouragement or participation in what may have constituted an insurrection on January 6, 2021, and therefore may be excluded from the ballot by officials elections at the state level. The timing of this decision will have immense consequences, with the stakes rising as each successive state holds its primary or caucus. March is a big month in the nomination processincluding 16 states voting on March 5, often called “Super Tuesday.”