The situation is unprecedented: Normally we judge elections based on the economy, incumbency, and the occasional war, but this battle is now entirely about personality.
So far, Trump’s trials have failed to dent his lead in swing states — but voters have consistently said an actual conviction could change their minds. Today, two-thirds of Americans insist that a “guilty” verdict doesn’t matter to them — but the close nature of this election means that the 17 percent who are considering dropping out Republican ticket are statistically significant.
In short, it has become much more difficult for Trump to win. The prospect of a prison sentence, which could be handed down on July 11, aggravates the situation. The Republican will have to explain how he could govern from a cell; his choice of vice president now becomes even more important. The debate on June 27 will be unmissable.
As an aside, the fact that Biden cannot overnight translate this belief into a guaranteed landslide re-election is a damning indictment of the Democratic Party, giving hope to the Republican Party. They didn’t have as much trouble with Richard Nixon (who wasn’t even convicted). Robert Kennedy Jr is scrambling to get into the debate – and he could yet benefit from a Ross Perot “none of the above” surge in the polls.