WASHINGTON – Voters in New York’s 3rd Congressional District return to the polls Tuesday to choose a replacement for besieged former New York Republican Rep. George Santos.
Tuesday’s special elections follow those of Santos expulsion from the United States House of Representatives in December, a seat he held for just under a year. This is a historic set of circumstances, as Santos became the sixth lawmaker in the country’s history to be kicked out of the room.
Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip are vying for the seat, which includes parts of Long Island and Queens. Democrats hope to flip the once-blue district, while both parties use Tuesday’s elections to test the waters ahead of other 2024 elections.
Voters will have the final say in determining who serves the remaining 11 months of Santos’ term. Here’s what you need to know about New York’s special election:
Why is New York having a special election?
New York’s 3rd Congressional District is holding a contest Tuesday to fill the vacant seat that once belonged to Santos. The House expelled the former New York lawmaker in December after a Scathing report from the House Ethics Committee found evidence that he misused campaign funds for his own personal benefit and committed federal crimes.
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The New York native was mired in controversy even before he entered Congress, as Santos grossly embellished and fabricated parts of his resume and background. He also faces a multitude of federal charges, including money laundering, wire fraud, identity theft, credit card fraud, and lying to Congress.
New York State law requires the governor declare a special election within 10 days of a vacant seat.
Who is running in the special election?
Two candidates are vying to fill the vacant Santos seat: Democrat Suozzi and Republican Pilip.
Suozzi is a former three-term member of the United States House of Representatives who was first elected in 2016. In Congress, he served as vice chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Suozzi also served as Nassau County executive, where he focused on the area’s economy and crime rates.
Pilip is an Ethiopian-born Nassau County legislator. She moved to Israel with her family and served in the Israel Defense Forces before immigrating to the United States. In the state Legislature, Pilip also addressed the issue of New York’s public safety, as well as efforts to combat anti-Semitism.
A Newsday/Siena College Poll released last week, Suozzi held a slim 4-point lead over Pilip as Democrats sought to flip the seat blue.
The winner of the special election will represent New York’s 3rd District until early 2025, rivaling Santos’ original term.
The stakes are high for House Republicans
The stakes in this election are particularly high given the very small majority of Republicans in the Lower House. The party split in the House currently stands at 219-212.
A victory by Suozzi or Pilip will determine how much leeway GOP leaders will have when it comes to passing key legislation.
If Pilip won, that would bring the number of Republicans to 220. With full participation, that means Republicans could afford to lose three Republican votes on legislation and still be able to pass bills without any Democratic support .
If Suozzi wins, it would give Democrats an additional advantage with 213 seats. That means that with full turnout, Republicans could only afford to see two GOP defections if they want to pass something along party lines.
Although one vote may seem small, the House, controlled by the Republican Party, has rarely managed to unite all of its members behind a single cause. The consequences of the Republicans’ slim majority in the Lower House were felt last weekwhen Republican lawmakers failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by a single vote, resulting in one of their most embarrassing setbacks.
What will the race in New York say about the 2024 general election?
With the 2024 general election still nine months away, the results of Tuesday’s race, whatever they may be, won’t necessarily serve as a prediction. But the contest will nonetheless offer insight into the effectiveness of Democratic and Republican strategies.
For example, New York Republicans have criticized Democrats for speaking out against violent crime in the state. Those efforts paid off in the 2022 midterm elections, when the Republican Party flipped a slate of seats held by Democrats. If Pilip wins, it could indicate that the GOP’s message is still working.
And a Suozzi victory would almost certainly enthuse House Democrats, eager to regain control of the lower chamber. New York’s 3rd congressional district is one of 18 districts that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 election, but Republicans managed to win in the 2022 midterm elections. Any path for Democrats to win back the House will pass through these 18 seats.
