Donald Trump is due to go on trial in March after being accused of conspiring to commit violence.
Washington:
As several American states intend to challenge Donald Trump’s right to run in the 2024 elections, his supporters say his enemies are tearing apart democracy to prevent his return to the White House.
The decisions in Colorado and Maine barring the ex-president from running in its primaries under the Constitution’s “insurrection clause” have triggered a political earthquake that could upend the campaign.
But do they pose a real threat to Trump’s presidential ambitions?
Why Trump might be unelectable
The US House of Representatives impeached the Republican tycoon for inciting insurrection after he called on his supporters to march to the US Capitol ahead of a deadly riot that delayed certification of the 2020 election.
A large bipartisan majority of the Senate agreed with the lower chamber’s findings, but membership fell short of the two-thirds required for conviction, which would have prevented Trump from running again.
Federal prosecutors have since charged Trump with conspiracy in connection with the violence, and his trial is scheduled for March.
Meanwhile, activists have filed lawsuits across the country to block his name from appearing on state primary ballots under the 14th Amendment, which bars people from holding office if they took an oath to defend the Constitution but then “engaged in insurrection.”
Where is Trump banned from showing up?
On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible to run in the state’s primary under the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause.”
Maine — where the secretary of state, currently a Democrat, makes the initial eligibility decision — followed suit Thursday.
Similar challenges have been filed across the country, with decisions pending in 14 states, according to the national security website Lawfare’s online disqualification tracker.
What happens next?
Both states are suspending their bans while the legal process plays out, meaning Trump will almost certainly appear on both ballots for their March 5 primaries.
Rank-and-file Republicans challenged the decision in Colorado, and the Trump campaign has indicated it intends to appeal both cases.
Maine’s decision would first go to the state’s Superior Court, while Colorado’s has already gone through the state system and would go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.
What can the United States Supreme Court do?
The heavily conservative-leaning high court — which includes three Trump appointees — may refuse to review Colorado’s case, meaning the Trump ban would stand.
In fact, most analysts believe that Maine’s joining Colorado removes any doubt about the justices’ willingness to act.
They would determine whether or not Section Three of the 14th Amendment – the Insurrection Clause – applies to a former president.
The court could also decide whether the ban is automatic or would require an act of Congress, and whether the 2021 storming of the Capitol and Trump’s role in it actually qualifies as an insurrection.
The effect of bans
Even if the Colorado and Maine bans were upheld, Trump should be able to comfortably secure the Republican nomination without those states, so his path to the White House would not necessarily be hindered.
But an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling binding on lower courts across the country — rather than a narrow procedural decision affecting only Colorado — could torpedo the ex-president’s main challenge.
He would then have to decide whether or not to run for president as a third-party candidate.
But even if the high court doesn’t weigh in on state-level decisions and the damage is limited to Colorado and Maine, the justices could leave the door open to challenges to Trump’s eligibility in the general election.
He could therefore well be barred from challenging President Joe Biden in November, even if he wins the Republican nomination.
Calendar
The wheels of the American justice system turn notoriously slowly – especially at the top.
The Supreme Court has not indicated whether it intends to take up Colorado’s appeal, or how long it would take to rule on Trump’s electability if it does. Trump’s opponents have stressed the importance of an urgent decision.
The court can act quickly when necessary: Its decision ending vote counting in Florida in the 2000 election – handing victory to George W. Bush – took less than a month.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
