Article content
Three gigantic waves will sweep through Alberta in 2024, political tsunamis that will disrupt our politics and help destroy the momentum of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s aggressive social change agenda.
The first wave? For the first time in many years, fears about immigration will become a major issue, even in welcoming Alberta.
Article content
The mass of new immigrants admitted by the Trudeau Liberals is already a major concern in Toronto, Trudeau’s former electoral stronghold. People are shuddering and worried about the unprecedented number of newcomers competing for already scarce resources, like apartments, houses and jobs.
Advertisement 2
Article content
The federal government had an ambitious target of 465,000 immigrants in 2023, said Colin Singer of the government website Immigration.ca, but Canada is expected to exceed that target with 526,000 new permanent residents in 2023, an increase of 20% compared to 438,000 by 2022.
But new permanent residents are only part of the immigration boom. In 2022, Canada’s population increased by more than a million people for the first time in its history, 58 percent of whom are temporary residents, such as workers, students and asylum seekers. said Mikal Skuterud, professor of economics at the University of Waterloo.
In total, Canada now has 2.5 million non-permanent residents, compared to 1.7 million a year ago, Statistics Canada reports.
The highest population growth rate was recorded in Alberta at +1.3 percent (with a national average of +1.1 percent).
Of course, earlier this year, Alberta actively pushed for new immigration with its “Alberta Is Calling” campaign. “Alberta is a land of opportunity for so many people! Premier Danielle Smiths said on social media in March, emphasizing that they were updating the program to make it easier for in-demand workers and entrepreneurs to become permanent residents here. “We need more qualified workers to keep our economy running at full capacity! »
Article content
Advertisement 3
Article content
It could be that Alberta’s economy continues to grow relative to the rest of Canada and the bustling cities of Edmonton and Calgary will keep up with the demand for housing. At the same time, as welcoming as Albertans may be, we can also turn against newcomers, as we saw in 1982 when Ralph Klein, then mayor of Calgary, worried on the housing crisis, homelessness and rising crime. Klein complained bitterly about the “bums” from the East who came here, unskilled workers who, he said, resorted to theft.
The fear is that Canada’s record immigration will not improve our economy, but it hurts he. Canada’s GDP contracted 4.4 percent in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada reported. “Signs of an economic slowdown are increasing.”
William Robson of the CD Howe Institute explained the downward dynamics in this way, “immigration is at the origin of a historic surge in Canada’s population. At the same time, Canadians’ wages and standard of living are stagnating. It’s a bad combination. More workers and less capital put Canada on the path to a low-productivity, low-wage economy.
Advertisement 4
Article content
Related Stories
No matter how Alberta handles immigration, there will be no escaping the second wave, massively rising grocery bills and high interest rates. This second tsunami has been threatening to drown us for more than a year. This also lowers Trudeau’s popularity. Last January, Trudeau had an approval rating of 42 percent, Angus Reid said. In October 2023, it fell to 31 percent. In Alberta, his approval was just 24 percent, with 60 percent strongly disapproving of Trudeau.
Trudeau is now promising to double down on his old platform of aggressive social change, but that agenda is not holding up well. It will be overwhelmed in 2024 by the third wave, which will focus on economic policy. This new focus will absorb almost all the energy in Canadian politics, draining enthusiasm from Trudeau’s liberal concerns about gender, climate and race.
Advertisement 5
Article content
After all, it’s hard to get upset about the Trudeau government’s latest initiative to free tampons in men’s restrooms when you’re afraid to pay your bills, let alone buy a house.
The sharpest conservative leaders will no longer be easily drawn into bitter culture war squabbles. They won’t have to, because their agenda of efficiency, prosperity, prudent spending and productivity will dominate.
As evidenced by the United Conservative Congress, the party’s base wants Smith to strongly oppose Trudeau’s agenda on trans issues and racial quotas in hiring and promotion. But judging by Smith’s quiet response to this mandate, I wonder if she realizes the obvious, that there’s no real need to fight that hard, that Trudeau’s problems will be simply swept away by the changing tide, by a new imperative, the need for all hands on deck to focus on saving our crumbling economy.
Article content