Tamil Nadu is currently ablaze with political fervor as the general elections loom on the horizon. With 39 parliamentary seats up for grabs, all political parties are engaged in a fierce battle to secure the lion’s share of representation.
At the forefront of this political fray is the formidable alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Indian National Congress (INC). Their main objective is to fortify their existing stronghold and secure a substantial share of the state’s parliamentary seats.
In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which governs at the national level, has strategically forged alliances with smaller regional parties to enter the political landscape of Tamil Nadu. Historically devoid of influence in the state, the BJP aims to expand its reach by collaborating with local entities and gaining a foothold.
However, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the main opposition parties in the state, is grappling with internal divisions. Despite its significant presence in Tamil Nadu politics, internal factions in the party pose a formidable challenge to it.
Moreover, the AIADMK’s decision to contest separately from the BJP adds to the complexity of the electoral equation.
By strategically positioning itself, the BJP is seeking to capitalize on the void left by the AIADMK by running independently, with the aim of emerging as a credible alternative and securing a significant share of seats.
Dravidian domination
Tamil Nadu’s political landscape has long been dominated by the DMK and AIADMK, a phenomenon rooted in the Dravidian movement, which champions social justice, linguistic pride and regional autonomy.
These parties resonate with voters through issues of identity, caste dynamics and shared cultural heritage, which are further amplified by the influence of cinema icons like MG Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa.
The specter of alliances
As the state prepares for the upcoming general elections, three major alliances are taking center stage.
The INDIA bloc, led in Tamil Nadu by MP Stalin’s DMK, includes the INC, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) led by Vaiyapuri Gopalsamy, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Indian Union Muslim League and smaller regional entities, emphasizing diversity. and a commitment to secularism.
The AIADMK alliance, despite the internal conflicts following Jayalalithaa’s death, is a coalition with various parties, including the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI).
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprises the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Tamil Maanila Congress and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), which is a splinter faction of the TTV-led AIADMK Dhinakaran.
They aim to expand their influence through collaborations, highlighting a wide range of political alliances vying for dominance.
Analysis of previous elections
Reflecting on past electoral analyses, the important elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019 highlighted the dynamic nature of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape.
The main factors contributing to electoral results include charismatic leadership, effective governance and strategic alliances.
In 2009, a bitter struggle took place between the DMK-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (INC, VCK and IUML) and the AIADMK-led Third Front (the PMK, MDMK, Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India). Indian Marxist (CPI(M))).
Despite pre-poll polls favoring the AIADMK, the UPA scored an unexpected victory with 27 out of 39 seats.
In 2014, the AIADMK won a resounding victory by securing 37 seats. The electoral landscape was marked by a confrontation between the AIADMK, the NDA (including the BJP, the DMDK and the PMK), the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DMK, VCK, IUML, MK, PT), the INC and the left and secular alliance (CPI and CPI). (M)).
The NDA won the remaining two seats.
In 2019, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) and the AIADMK-led NDA vied for supremacy.
The SPA won a landslide victory with 38 seats, while the NDA won only one seat, won by the AIADMK.
The demise of J. Jayalalithaa in 2016 posed challenges to the AIADMK, which the DMK under MK Stalin capitalized on.
![](https://cdn.thewire.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/25135006/VS_partyimage1.jpg)
Table by author.
Caste dynamics
Caste dynamics also play a central role in Tamil Nadu politics, with various communities exerting their influence and shaping their political affiliations.
The Mukkulathor community, which represents approximately 11.7% of the population, exerts considerable influence, particularly in the southern and central districts.
The Vanniyars, who constitute about 16.9% of the population and dominate the northern region of the state, are predominantly aligned with the PMK, although they have also at times extended support to the DMK and the AIADMK.
Recent electoral trends depict a nuanced shift, with the BJP garnering support from Thevars, Gounders, SCs, upper castes, STs and minorities.
The DMK-led alliance gets votes from SCs, Muslims, Vanniyars, upper castes and STs, forming a coalition of various political parties and garnering support from various communities.
![](https://cdn.thewire.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/25135439/Caste-Equationimage2.png)
Table by author.
The path to follow
As Tamil Nadu prepares for the next electoral showdown, alliances will be subjected to scrutiny, manifestos will be dissected and voters’ sentiments meticulously assessed.
In the context of Dravidian heritage and contemporary aspirations, this election marks a pivotal moment in the political history of the state. The upcoming elections could see a three-way contest between the DMK-led INDIA alliance, the BJP-led NDA and the AIADMK alliance.
In recent times, Tamil Nadu has witnessed intense political activity, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders engaging with the electorate. Notably, K. Annamalai, the state president of the BJP, has emerged as a dynamic force, reinvigorating the party’s presence through its work across the state. Padayatra and emphasis on anti-corruption measures and opposition to dynastic politics.
Despite the challenges, the BJP remains resolute in its efforts to strengthen its presence in Tamil Nadu, by forging alliances and strategically positioning itself. The BJP is eagerly eyeing several parliamentary seats, including Coimbatore and Kanyakumari, where the party performed well in the last elections.
With the PMK joining the NDA, the BJP will benefit as the PMK has considerable influence within the Vanniyar community.
The INDIA bloc is aiming to secure all 39 seats, and the Congress is looking to maximize its number of seats to strengthen the national tally as alliances and electoral strategies continue to evolve in the run-up to the general elections.
The AIADMK, which seemed to have lost momentum after Jayalalithaa’s death, is now regaining its strength in the state with the addition of PT and SDPI to its coalition.
Notably, the inclusion of the SDPI is expected to strengthen the AIADMK alliance, particularly in the Dindigul constituency and adjoining areas, where there is a large Muslim population.
Aamir Shakil is a policy researcher at ETG.