In a hypothetical presidential matchup in the 2024 general election, President Joe Biden holds a small lead over former President Donald Trump with 49 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 45 percent supporting Trump, according to Quinnipiac National University (KWIN -uh-pea-ack). survey of registered voters released today.
That compares to the Jan. 31 Quinnipiac University poll, where Biden had 50 percent support and Trump had 44 percent support.
In today’s poll, Democrats support Biden (93 – 4%), while Republicans support Trump (91 – 7%). Independents are split, with 44% supporting Biden and 42% supporting Trump.
When the hypothetical matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 38 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 15 percent support, Independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent support.
AGE, PHYSICAL AND MENTAL FITNESS
67-31% of voters think President Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president, compared to 68-28% in the September 2023 Quinnipiac University poll.
Between 57 and 41 percent of voters think Donald Trump is not too old to effectively serve another four-year term as president, up from 63 to 34 percent in September.
Voters were asked whether Biden and Trump had the physical and mental fitness to serve a second presidential term.
Fitness:
- Biden: 35 percent say yes, 62 percent say no;
- Trump: 60% say yes, 37% say no.
Mental fitness:
- Biden: 34 percent say yes, 64 percent say no;
- Trump: 48% say yes, 51% say no.
ETHICS, EMPATHY AND TEMPERAMENT
Voters were asked whether Biden and Trump were ethical, cared about average Americans and had the kind of personality and temperament needed to serve effectively as president.
Ethics:
- Biden: 49 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
- Trump: 29% say yes, 68% say no.
Cares about average Americans:
- Biden: 51% say yes, 47% say no;
- Trump: 42% say yes, 57% say no.
Personality type and temperament needed to serve effectively as president:
- Biden: 49 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 37% say yes, 61% say no.
“A split decision between Biden and Trump on physical and emotional fitness leaves both vulnerable. Yes, Trump wins by moving away on the issue of age and stamina, but voters have more confidence in empathy of Biden in their regard and in his emotional stability to handle the job.”
said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University.
BIDEN AGAINST. HALEY
In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and governor of South Carolina, 46% of voters support Haley and 43% support Biden.
When the hypothetical matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 35 percent support, Haley receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support and Stein receives 3 percent support.
PRIMARY
In the 2024 Republican presidential primary, 80% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump and 17% support Haley.
In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 80% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters support Biden and 15% support Minnesota U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips.
BIDEN JOB ENDORSEMENTS
Voters give President Biden a negative approval rating of 40 to 57 percent.
Voters were asked about how Biden handled…
- the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 47 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove;
- the economy: 42 percent approve, while 55 percent disapprove;
- foreign policy: 36 percent approve, while 60 percent disapprove;
- gun violence: 32 percent approve, while 59 percent disapprove;
- the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 31 percent approve, while 62 percent disapprove;
- the situation at the Mexican border: 29 percent approve, while 63 percent disapprove.
MOST URGENT QUESTION
Faced with a list of 10 questions and asked which is the most urgent facing the country today, 21 percent of voters responded that preserving democracy in the United States, 20 percent said responded to the economy, 17 percent to immigration and 10 percent to gun violence. No other problem reached a double-digit rate.
Among Republicans, the top issue is immigration (35 percent), followed by the economy (24 percent) and preserving democracy in the United States (13 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (32%), followed by gun violence (17%) and the economy (10%).
Among independents, the top issue is the economy (24%), followed by preserving democracy in the United States (18%) and immigration (16%).
NATO
A large majority of voters (83%) think that U.S. membership in NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is either very important (57%) or somewhat important (26%) for the security of the United States, while 16% think it is very important (57%) or somewhat important (26%) for the security of the United States. is not that important (9 percent) or not important at all (7 percent).
Two-thirds of voters (67%) say the statement that “NATO plays an important role in global security and the United States should remain a member of NATO” is closer to their view, while that 25% believe that other NATO countries’ statement “Countries are not contributing enough as members and the United States should be independent of NATO” is closer to their view.
Former President Trump recently said that if re-elected, he would not protect NATO allies who fail to meet their spending targets and would encourage Russia to do whatever it wants against these NATO allies. More than 7 in 10 voters (71 percent) think it’s a bad idea, 18 percent think it’s a good idea and 11 percent expressed no opinion.
“Trump’s tough, tough stance on NATO countries meets a thud as US voters say the 31-member security alliance isn’t just good for Europe, it’s good for the United States”,
Malloy added.
MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
Between 48 and 44 percent of voters are slightly opposed to the United States sending more military aid to Israel for its efforts in the war against Hamas.
Republicans (63 to 32%) support the United States sending more military aid to Israel, while Democrats (53 to 38%) and independents (55 to 38%) oppose it.
Between 56 and 40 percent of voters support the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine for its efforts in the war against Russia.
Democrats (84 to 15%) support the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine, while Republicans (60 to 36%) oppose it. Independents are split, with 49 percent in favor and 45 percent against.
“A tale of two existential conflicts is a tale of two bitterly divided political parties. Republicans support Israel but are wary of continued engagement with Ukraine. Democrats are fiercely committed to arming Ukraine and far less enthusiastic to the idea of arming Israel.”
Malloy added.
1,421 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed Feb. 15-19 with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey included 576 Republican and Republican-leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points and 624 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, conducted by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, nonpartisan national and state level polling on politics and issues. Surveys follow industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
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