The Democrats are touting a new mantra to anyone who will listen. election The cycle is accelerating: 2024 is “the year of the States”.
Amid growing concerns about President Joe Biden’s re-election chances, a brutal Senate map and an anticipated knife fight for the House of Representatives, Democrats are emphasizing the importance of state legislative elections this year next in an effort to consolidate a string of key victories and establish a bulwark in case Republicans make inroads into Washington.
Democrats are looking to build on their momentum after last month’s major victories in Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia, as state legislatures find themselves at the forefront of deciding everything from access to abortion to voting rights to congressional maps. Democrats hope victories in crucial states can improve Biden’s chances – and hurt the former president Donald Trump‘s — in 2024. And, unlike the 2010s, when such races were barely on Democrats’ radar, the party is ready to turn on the funding spigot.
“As we look toward 2024, the impact and need to pay attention to states has never been greater. And as we believe that 24 is the year of states and we really need to continue to build from what we’ve already created, there’s absolutely an energy, I think there’s more attention than ever at this level of voting,” said Heather Williams, acting chair of the Legislative Campaign Committee Democrat (DLCC), told ABC News in an interview.
Democrats are eyeing an advantageous map in the battle for state legislative chambers next year, including possible pickup opportunities in the Arizona state Legislature, Pennsylvania Senate, New Hampshire House and more. Meanwhile, they are defending narrow majorities in the state chambers of Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania and seeking to break Republican supermajorities in Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina – all of which have Democratic governors.
To support their efforts, the DLCC is expected to spend about $60 million in the 2024 cycle. And at a time when other campaign groups are seeing a decline in online fundraising, the DLCC is seeing its numbers increase.
He’s preparing a potential seven-figure investment in state races, according to details first shared with ABC News. This includes nearly $260,000, plus an additional $800,000 investment conditional on campaigns meeting DLCC investment standards.
That includes nearly $83,000 to protect the Michigan House, $70,000 to target both houses of the Arizona Legislature, $50,000 to flip the New Hampshire House, $30,000 to protect the Pennsylvania House, 24,000 $ to make gains in both houses of the Wisconsin legislature and $15,000 to break the Republicans. ‘ supermajority in the North Carolina House.
Democrats are also expected to also be strongly competitive in states where they have no chance of picking up a legislative chamber, but where they can reduce the Republicans’ advantage.
“We don’t need to win them back to make a huge difference. We don’t need to control the state legislature with a 50 percent majority to be able to make a huge difference for the people of this state. Getting the 45% “Getting the 40% can be a huge victory at the legislative bargaining table in some of these redder states,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic strategist who worked on Virginia’s congressional elections and the referendum. on abortion in Ohio last month.
Democrats say the initial investments match the seriousness with which they need to approach national elections next year, as former President Donald Trump and Republicans in his mold run for office from top to bottom.
“We need to build on our progress. It’s really important for us, especially if we’re in an election where President Biden is facing Donald Trump, that we continue to understand the power that is in the states,” Jessica Post said. , DLCC Chairman Emeritus, who is widely credited with leading the charge to get Democrats to refocus their attention on national elections.
“Now that we have even more power in the states, we need to maintain that power and increase it because of the challenges that could come from the federal government,” Post said. “So it will always be an important bulwark.”
The DLCC’s work marks the latest phase of its rebound from the Obama era, when strategists say Democrats ignored state races and handed Republicans massive majorities in chambers across the country.
Democrats were down to just 29 Democratic majorities in all states in 2016 — which Post called a “historic low.”
“For a long time, Republicans understood real power in the states, and a lot of our party thought, ‘Oh, it’s just a way to fuel the farm team when you get real power, when you are in the United States Congress,’” said Post, who added that Washington Democrats with a federal orientation are opening their eyes to the importance of the states.
But through what Post described as a chipping away strategy, Democrats were able to pick up seats to the point where more Americans live under the Democratic trio of governor and state legislature than under the Republican trio.
The 2022 races helped solidify the DLCC’s arguments that Democrats should focus and could win state legislative elections, flipping the Minnesota Senate and both houses of the Michigan legislature, given the Democratic trio in each state, flipping the Pennsylvania House and protecting majorities elsewhere.
Those victories, combined with a few victories in 2023 and the Supreme Court’s overturning of the federal right to abortion, helped generate the momentum the DLCC is trying to build into next year, strategists said.
“I think we’re trying to continue the momentum of undoing the damage done between 2010 and 2020,” said Amanda Litman, co-founder of Run For Something, which recruits candidates for the legislative elections.
“In particular, seeing the damage that state legislators have done to access to abortion, to voting rights… really reinforces the need to put good leaders in these offices, even and perhaps especially in the states where we’re not going to win the electoral college, or it’s a very long shot. Otherwise, it matters who’s running the show.”
State legislative elections also matter, with the White House, Senate and House of Representatives all up for grabs. Beyond the prospect of full control of the Republican Party in Washington, which would require discussions of a Democratic bulwark, Run For Something’s research suggests that Democrats’ chances in the nation’s capital may depend on their success in state capitals. States.
“Just participating in a state legislative race can increase voter turnout for elections from half a percent to over 2 percent in that constituency or district. That can be the margin of victory,” Litman said.
Still, Litman said warning signs lurk.
“I think 2023 was a really tough year, and we saw a decline across the board. Now, some Virginia races were pretty well funded, but even towards the end, I know some campaigns were struggling. I “I think organizations on the ground that exist beyond Election Day have been struggling overall. It’s a huge problem,” she told ABC News.
And while Democrats have clearly increased recognition of the importance of state races, some who spoke to ABC News indicated that the amount of money the DLCC and others are devoting to the 2024 elections could assess the Democrats’ ability to walk and chew gum amid intense focus on Congress and democracy. the White House.
“The attention and focus that has been developed over the last few years is some of the greatest,” said Simone Leiro, a spokeswoman for the States Project, which has invested $60 million in state races in 2022. “It will also be what determines whether, even in a busy year, state legislatures are still treated with the attention they deserve.