Taiwan has become a flashpoint between the United States and China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made Taiwan’s unification with China a key goal – which he is determined to achieve by force if necessary, as he has made clear on several occasions.
However, contrary to what the media claimed before the vote, relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are far from being the only issue that concerns Taiwanese voters. The country faces a challenge economic situation marked by low wages and soaring property prices. Parliamentary elections also take place alongside the presidential vote.
USIP’s Rosie Levine, Carla Freeman, and Andrew Scobell discuss the importance of Taiwan’s elections, their implications for Taiwan’s relationship with China, and how the United States can promote peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Who is leading the presidential race and what are the candidates’ positions on relations between the two shores?
Levine: As Taiwan’s presidential election approaches on January 13, the three-way race has tightened. Taiwan introduces a ban on public opinion polls in the 10 days before election day, so the latest polls have been taken January 2 and public opinion could change in the latter part of the race.
For the majority of the race, polls suggest that William Lai (or Lai Ching-te) has maintained his lead, but his position is far from secure. Lai, the current vice president representing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has positioned himself as a vote for continuity for Taiwan. He has been a familiar face in politics since the 1990s, having served as a lawmaker in the Legislative Yuan before joining Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, and chose another political insider as his running mate: Hsiao Bi-khim , a well-known personality in Washington. who recently served as Taiwan’s top representative to the United States.
Lai is trailed in the polls by Hou Yu-ih, the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate. Hou is the former mayor of New Taipei City and campaigned for closer connectivity with China. Like Hou Speak clearly, dialogue between the two sides of the Strait is “a crucial means of defusing crises and ensuring peace and stability”. Hou highlighted his party’s unique abilities to prevent war with China and its ability to bring a new vision to the office after eight years of DPP rule.
In third place is Ko Wen-je, founder and candidate of the recently founded Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which has positioned itself as an alternative to the main parties. He look for maintain a “dynamic balance” in balancing Taiwan’s relations between the United States and China. Although this new path initially resonated with voters, as Election Day approaches, its numbers have increased. abandoned and both leading candidates sought to marginalize Ko to consolidate their own positions in a tight race.
On the surface, there are similarities between the three candidates’ positions on cross-Strait relations: all reject formal declarations of independence, reject China’s territorial claims, and seek to maintain a relationship with the United States. . Lai would likely seek to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait by forging closer relations with the United States, Hou by restoring ties with China, and Ko by seeking to balance the two.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stepped up his speeches on Taiwan’s unification with China – in San Francisco meeting with President Biden then more recently in his New Year’s speech. How might China react to the election result?
Free man: Xi Jinping has taken a hard line on cross-strait relations throughout his term. His recent New Year’s speech included a particularly strong message to Taiwanese voters about cross-Strait unification, which he called inevitability. Xi says China prefers peaceful unification (or “reunification”), but has refused to disavow the use of military force to achieve this goal, or in response to any formal declaration of independence by Taiwan. Ahead of Taiwan’s elections, Beijing increased pressure on the island by sending large numbers of military aircraft and warships to Taiwan and promoted the idea that Taiwan’s voters must choose between “war and peace”, suggesting the risk of war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. the conflict intensifies with the victory of the DPP candidate, who Beijing characterizes as a separatist.
If KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih wins, Beijing will react to the election result as a de facto endorsement of its “one China principle.” As a result, he is likely to soften the hard line he has taken on Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen’s first term, with immediate actions including rolling back trade restrictions he has imposed in Taiwan before the elections and opening the door to trade between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. dialogue. The groundwork has already been laid for the latter with a series of recent cross-Strait trips by KMT officials, such as the KMT vice chairman and former Taiwanese diplomat. Andrew Hsia’s mid-December trip in China.
If voters choose Lai over Hou, Beijing’s response will be very different. Beijing will certainly take punitive measures, including increasing the level of its military pressure on Taiwan or taking further steps aimed at crippling Taiwan’s economy. Some experts speculate that China could go beyond intensifying gray zone activities to deploy a large-scale military exercise encircling Taiwan, amass troops in Fujian province across the strait or even block routes to supply to the small islands off the coast of Taiwan. This is a risky approach given the risk of miscalculation and the likelihood of a significant impact. reaction of the United States in a context of still fragile American-Chinese relations.
How should the United States promote peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait?
Scobell: Washington should focus on clearly communicating three key points to Beijing.
First, U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged and continues to be firmly based on three joint communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and the “Six Assurances”. While China insists that the only documents that should govern US policy toward Taiwan are the 1972, 1978 and 1982 communiqués jointly formulated by Washington and Beijing, it understands that US policy on Taiwan is also guided by the TRA passed by Congress in 1979 and the Six Assurances provided to Taipei by President Ronald Reagan in 1982. Essentially, the TRA and the Six Assurances commit the United States to stand with Taiwan and not engage in any negotiations with China regarding the status of Taiwan.
Second, Washington remains committed to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and opposes the use of coercion or force. This is difficult for Beijing to swallow because each side has a different definition of what constitutes the issue. status quo and China is convinced that Washington continues to work to change this situation. Nonetheless, the Biden administration should continue to reiterate that when it comes to Taiwan’s elections, Washington does not favor any particular candidate or party and Washington is willing to work with whoever wins.
Third, the United States should continue to demand that China does not interfere in elections and respect the will of the people of Taiwan as expressed through the democratic process.
