Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to international condemnation, sanctions, and shunning of Moscow. But its heinous actions also led to a surge in support from fellow rogue nations China and North Korea. Misery loves company, and now all three countries, saddled with international sanctions for their transgressions against the global order, are enhancing their economic, diplomatic, and security ties.
Beijing and Pyongyang differ in their support, but both benefit from their engagement with their increasingly isolated and beleaguered Russian partner. Yet the China-North Korea-Russia relationship appears to be more of a series of mutually beneficial bilateral transactions rather than a solid trilateral partnership or alliance.
Growing Chinese-Russian Solidarity
Hit with strong sanctions, departing foreign business partners, and freezing of Russian funds overseas after its 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine, Russia desperately turned to China for economic help. Bilateral trade subsequently expanded, allowing Moscow to mitigate the impact of international punitive measures.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin now describes Chinese-Russian relations as at their “highest point in history.” At the same time, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping characterized Putin as his “best, most intimate friend.” The two leaders have met with each other more than forty times since 2012.
Yet, despite Putin’s and Xi’s laudatory descriptions, the “no limits” bilateral relationship is not a formal alliance, nor do the two countries have a mutual defense commitment to each other. Instead, China and Russia have a mutually beneficial marriage of convenience based on a converging alignment of strategic interests and objectives. It is a partnership of interconnected independence.
In fact, there are great differences between Chinese and Russian objectives and tactics (as has historically been the case). While Russia seems determined to blow up its relations with the United States and the European Union, China strives to continue economic trade and diplomatic engagement to overcome its growing economic problems at home and expand Beijing’s influence overseas. Beijing’s support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks straining relations with China’s trading partners, secondary sanctions imposed on Chinese banks and businesses, and undermining the regime’s attempts to divide its Western opponents.
Resumption of Russian-North Korean Engagement
Ties between Moscow and Pyongyang had largely languished after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed that. North Korea has supported Russia’s war both through diplomatic support and by providing over a million artillery shells and dozens of modern short-range ballistic missiles.
Kim Jong-un’s September 2023 trip to Russia and summit meeting with Putin were breakthroughs in bilateral relations and confirmed the growing military and diplomatic entente between the two countries. However, what Pyongyang has or will receive in return for its military largesse remains unclear.
Moscow could provide financial, economic, or energy benefits. Some experts speculate that Russia might hand the crown jewels of cutting-edge military technology, such as designs for nuclear warheads, reentry vehicles, or assistance on ICBMs. However, it is more likely that Russia will provide second-tier weapon technology such as military reconnaissance satellites or advanced conventional weapon designs—still a worrisome prospect.
Reasons for Hope Amongst the Darkness
Despite the deterioration in the Indo-Pacific security environment, there is also great cause for confidence. The threatening actions of Russia, China, and North Korea led to an epiphany for the Indo-Pacific nations about the need for enhanced security measures and greater defense cooperation. To paraphrase Charles Dickens’s A Tale of Two Cities, it is the worst of times and the best of times for responding to these threats.
Bold actions by the South Korean and Japanese leaders enabled a rapprochement between their countries over difficult historical issues, facilitating greater trilateral security cooperation with the United States. The three countries resumed military exercises in 2022 to repair the degradation in allied deterrence capabilities.
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In December 2022, South Korea and Japan published national security documents that greatly resembled those of the United States. The trilateral Camp David Summit in August 2023 solidified unprecedented trilateral military, diplomatic, and economic policy coordination cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
That said, much work remains ahead for the United States, South Korea, and Japan to embed current and future progress against potential reversals by future administrations. The three countries should create an interconnected missile defense system rather than just a rapid exchange of North Korean missile alerts. Trilateral military operation plans should strive towards developing trilateral combined air and naval capabilities beyond current anti-submarine and missile-defense exercises.
The Path Ahead
China, North Korea, and Russia each pose a significant threat to regional stability, cybersecurity, and the international financial system. For that reason alone, Indo-Pacific and European nations should enhance their own defenses and coalesce with other like-minded democracies to develop more effective multilateral responses. The growing solidarity among the three rogue nations only adds impetus to the need for a rapid and coordinated counter-strategy.
While a firm military and security response is the most immediate need, Indo-Pacific and European nations should also accelerate efforts to reduce their energy and financial reliance on Russia and China to minimize either nation’s ability to coerce and intimidate its trading partners. This requires dedicated multilateral efforts to develop alternative raw material suppliers and manufactured goods producers.
This piece originally appeared in The National Interest https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-russia-north-korea-partnership-triple-threat-cant-be-ignored-210036
