The Republican primaries shed light on how voters view the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election to the presidency in 2020. The attitudes revealed could shape the 2024 presidential race as well as the future of American democracy.
A recent poll suggests that people who voted for Trump are much more likely to believe that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected president than voters of Trump’s Republican rival, Nikki Haley. Entrance survey results from the Iowa primary found that 69% of voters who did not believe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election supported Trump. In contrast, 53% of Republican voters who believe Biden’s presidency is legitimate supported Haley.
Ahead of South Carolina’s February 24 primary, others vote suggests that 57% of Republican voters think Biden’s presidency is illegitimate, and that 85% of those voters support Trump. About 70% of those who think Biden won the election “fairly and equitably” support Haley.
According to a recent national study vote32% of Americans and 63% of Republicans continue to believe that “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen by Biden and the Democrats. It is important to note that these beliefs persist even though the 2020 election was one of safest in US history without any evidence of widespread electoral fraud.
Meanwhile, former President Trump – the likely Republican nominee in the 2024 election – continues to push the big lie as a key element of his campaign.
The United States Supreme Court has long underlines the importance of freedom of speech and media to ensure that government responds to the will of the people. The court considers that an informed population is “the most powerful of all constraints against bad governance”. These principles “ensure the security of the Republic”, and the foundation of constitutional government.
It’s important not to overestimate the importance of the polls, but they could reveal something important about what the American public is thinking as the 2024 election approaches.
And everything that is revealed is directly related to the fundamental principles put forward by the Supreme Court. Indeed, voting patterns and recent polls imply that a significant share of Republican voters distrust the American electoral system and continue to believe that Democrats “stole” the 2020 election.
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Of particular concern is how the American public can hold a leader accountable when that leader lies to them about the integrity of his democracy and, significantly, so many people believe him?
Trump leads Haley in the polls and is considered the presumptive Republican nominee. This is a matter of grave concern for those who believe in the fundamental principles of American democracy and its institutions, and who worry about creeping authoritarianism.
For example, one poll suggests that nearly half of Republicans want a leader willing to break some rules “if that’s what it takes to make things right,” and 23% of Americans believe it is necessary to resort to violence “to save our country.”
What happens next?
Trump’s de facto leadership of the Republican Party was evident in his instrumental role in persuading Republican representatives for not supporting a recent bipartisan immigration and foreign aid bill, which included aid to Ukraine and tighter controls at the Mexican border.
This forced Democrats to cut aid to Ukraine in a separate bill, which was now passed by the Senate. The fate of the bill in the Househowever, remains uncertain due to Trump loyalists.
Trump’s intervention comes after months of good faith negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, Republicans would have gotten much of what they sought in terms of border security reforms. It is reasonable to assume that Trump’s influence over the party will continue to grow as the 2024 election approaches.
Trump faces 91 criminal charges (some of which relate to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results) and his civil liability for sexual assault and defamation, all of which he denies.
However, these challenges have not reduced his popularity with the Republican base. We also know, thanks to recent data vote that Republicans are now more sympathetic to those who participated in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack than they were three years ago. They are also more likely to absolve Trump of any responsibility related to the attack.
If Trump’s status changes from presumptive to actual Republican nominee, the question will be whether Haley’s supporters will switch allegiance to Trump (despite radically different beliefs), choose a third-party candidate, choose Biden, or simply decide not to vote. The decisions of Haley’s supporters could have significant consequences not only for the 2024 election, but also for the health of American democracy.
For these reasons, the differences between Trump and Haley voters and their importance deserve much more attention.
