A repression against pro-Palestinians student protestsDonald Trump’s secret criminal trial and political wrangling over foreign aid and immigration have dominated headlines in the United States in recent weeks.
These issues have exposed deep divisions in the country as it moves closer to what should be a heated battle for the White House between outgoing President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and his Republican predecessor, Trump.
But for most Americans, the November 5 presidential election – exactly six months from Sunday – is not yet on their radars.
“In the United States, most people are still not listening. Despite you and me and the political class, the vast majority of Americans are not paying attention to elections,” said Erik Nisbet, professor of analytics politics and communications at Northwestern. University.
“People don’t come online until September,” he told Al Jazeera. “But at this point, it’s important to get your stories out there. It’s important to solidify and mobilize your base.”
Perceptions of an “election 2.0”
Most polls show a tight race between Biden and Trump heading into the election, with experts saying the contest will likely hinge on how the candidates fare in critical swing states like Michigan, Georgia and Nevada.
But there is also widespread frustration because the choice this election cycle is the same as in 2020, when Biden beat Trump to win the White House.
A recent Pew Research Center survey found that nearly half of all registered voters said they would replace Biden and Trump on the ballot if they could.
About two-thirds of respondents said they had little or no confidence that Biden was physically fit enough to be president, according to the poll, while a similar number said they did not. did not believe that Trump would act ethically in office.
“This is Election 2.0,” said Jan Leighley, a political science professor at American University in Washington, DC.
“I think it discourages voting, which again spills over into campaigns to convince people that even if it’s the same choice, there’s still a reason to vote.”
Youth vote
For the Biden camp, the message so far has been that a vote for the Democratic incumbent is a good thing. vote for democratic ideals. “Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,” Biden said in January.
But that message is failing to resonate among key segments of the Democratic base who are angered by the Biden administration’s unequivocal support for Israel in its war in Gaza.
The recent wave of pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses has highlighted a generational divide in the relationship between the United States and Israel, which in turn could poses a serious problem for Biden as he seeks to secure the youth vote in November.
In 2020, Biden had about 60% support among voters aged 18 to 29.
But one recent CNN poll showed Biden trailing Trump — 51 percent to 40 percent — among voters under 35, and experts say a lack of enthusiasm among younger voters could create problems.
“We know how students feel,” said Hasan Pyarali, president of the Muslim group at the College Democrats of America, the college arm of the Democratic Party.
“And I can tell you with certainty that there are too many who would stay home” on November 5 if Biden does not change his Middle East policy, Pyarali added. “I doubt people will turn to Trump, but they certainly won’t vote.”
According to Northwestern University’s Nisbet, Biden’s campaign must focus in the coming months on “getting the Democratic house in order” before trying to woo the country’s relatively small number of undecided voters.
Any protests at the Democratic National Convention, for example, could harm him. Democrats will meet in Chicago in August to formally confirm Biden as their 2024 nominee.
“The Democratic Party, or at least the Biden campaign, doesn’t want any dissension within the (party) because it’s a bad visual,” Nisbet said.
Trump’s legal woes
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump’s campaign took place against a backdrop of unprecedented legal turmoil.
The former president faces four separate criminal cases, including a trial in progress in New York following allegations that he falsified business records related to a secret payment made to an adult film star.
Although the indictments have done little so far to dent Trump’s support among Republican voters, some polls suggest that a portion of the American electorate would not vote for him if he were convicted in one of these cases.
Trump is expected to be confirmed as the Republican Party’s 2024 nominee at the party’s convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.
“Conventions happen throughout the summer, but there’s usually not a lot of activity in terms of campaigning,” said Leighley of American University.
But this year could be different, given Trump’s court hearings and pressure on Biden over the Gaza war. “It could be unusual hurdles, if you will, that provide opportunities for campaigns to do more in terms of advertising,” she said.
Key questions
Leighley and Nisbet said the American economy is still an important election issue, and it will continue to be a focus during the coming months of the campaign.
Despite positive economic indicators, many Americans believe they are worse off today than when Trump was in the White House, recent polls suggest.
“There’s a big gap in which people, for whatever reason – it could be because of the economy, it could be memory bias – they look more favorably on then-Trump’s presidency than on current Trump’s. Biden as a whole,” Nisbet said.
He added that the economy is hurting Biden among Latino and Black voters, as well as young people, all of whom make up key segments of the Democratic base.
“Trump will want to talk about how bad the economy is,” Nisbet said, while Biden’s team will instead “try to change the conversation” and turn to other issues.
This includes access to abortion. Biden has made advocating access to reproductive health care a central part of his re-election campaign, repeatedly. condemn Trump and Republican Party lawmakers for supporting abortion restrictions.
In 2022, under Trump, the United States Supreme Court formed a conservative “supermajority,” allowing him to overturn Roe v. Wadea landmark 1973 decision that made access to abortion a constitutional right.
Eliminating Roe was a conservative priority for decades, and several Republican-led states have since passed strict limits on abortion.
According to Leighley, “the focus will be on the issue of abortion and Trump’s role in it, as well as the Republican Party and its plans” as the presidential campaigns move closer to the fall months, September and October.
Debates schedule
This is also when the first debate between Biden and Trump could take place.
The Commission on Presidential Debates reiterated On Wednesday, the first televised showdown between the candidates would take place on September 16, confirming dates announced late last year.
The announcement comes after Trump’s team urged the commission to move up the timeline.
There has been uncertainty surrounding the 2024 debates, especially since Trump avoided participating during the Republican primary process. But last week, Biden and Trump said they were ready to do so.
“Honestly, I don’t know if either one wants them, but it’s an American tradition — and I think it would really harm American democracy if we didn’t have presidential debates,” said Nesbit.
“It’s a major part of our tradition in the United States. And having presidential debates, even if they don’t change anyone’s mind – and they rarely do – I think it’s important that Americans at least hear both of their candidates express their views.”
