By Holly Honderichin Des Moines, Iowa
Getty ImagesDonald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, but Nikki Haley is on the rise. If the former president shows signs of weakness in next week’s vote, her long-term candidacy could become a real threat.
This week, on a snowy morning in Iowa, in the middle of an Irish pub, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley delivered her speech: 13 tight minutes on spending cuts, education reform and southern border security.
At the heart of his speech was this: A Haley presidency would be a return to normalcy, a drama-free alternative to the current front-runner, former President Donald Trump.
“You don’t want this anymore? Because we might go through this again,” she said.
That line received the loudest applause of the morning from about 100 voters who had braved icy roads to hear him speak in Waukee, on the outskirts of the state capital, Des Moines.
Eleven months into her candidacy, Ms. Haley, 51, finally seems to have the wind at her back.
Heading into Monday’s Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the 2024 Republican race, the former South Carolina governor reeled off a string of well-timed victories — consolidating support from deep-pocketed donors, accumulating support and progressing regularly in the polls.
“She’s engaging, smart, personable and I think she has a vision for where we should be in 10 years,” Haley supporter Doug Stout said after seeing her speak Tuesday.
The vision was of a “shining city on the hill” type Republican Party, he said. “The one I grew up with.”
The sad reality of Haley’s campaign, however, is that few voters seem to embrace this vision. Most polls, including in Iowa, suggest Mr. Trump maintains a lead of around 30 points.
Observers say Nikki Haley is running a campaign for the bad days of Republican politics; that his candidacy ignores the reality of the modern Republican Party, whose base has turned so definitively toward Mr. Trump that the pro-establishment conservatism favored by Ms. Haley no longer makes sense.
“Ms. Haley’s campaign represents a misunderstanding of where the base is and what they want,” said Gunner Ramer, political director of the Republican Accountability Project.
“For those who want the return of the old Republican Party, Haley offers a very attractive candidacy. But there are not enough Republicans to do it.”
Getty ImagesSo what exactly is his game plan?
Ms. Haley’s allies say, privately and publicly, that she is playing to win.
They insist that as the field narrows and Ms. Haley becomes the clear alternative to Mr. Trump, she will surge ahead, propelled by moderates and a growing number of Republican voters who have it. tired of the former president or worried about his chances in the elections. general election.
In Iowa, Ms. Haley appears poised to take second place from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
During a debate Wednesday evening between the two men, Ms. Haley sought to position herself as Mr. Trump’s sole rival. “I wish Donald Trump was on this stage. He’s the one I’m running against,” she said.
Campaign aides told the BBC that Ms. Haley’s goal in Iowa is simple: build momentum. A strong showing, they said, would take her to New Hampshire — where the polls with Mr. Trump are much closer — and then to South Carolina, her home state.
Mrs. Haley can be helped by the sudden exit of anti-Trump candidate Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign this week. The former New Jersey governor’s supporters, polls suggest, are most likely to flock to her.
Less helpful was Mr Christie’s heated moment, when he was overheard saying she would “get smoked”, presumably by Mr Trump.
“She’s not up to that,” he said.
Getty ImagesLongtime observers counter that Ms. Haley has a knack for defying expectations.
“If you look at her career, a lot of people underestimated her and a lot of people were wrong,” said Randy Covington, a veteran South Carolina journalist.
Even her detractors acknowledge that she is a master of retail politics – the door knocks and handshakes that took her to the statehouse in 2005. She stunned her own party in the primary by unseating Larry Koon, then the longest-serving member of the House. . At the time, Ms. Haley had no political experience and was a bookkeeper for her family’s clothing store.
Nearly 20 years later, the state representative turned governor and UN ambassador still likes to introduce herself as an accountant first. She points out that she is a mother of two, wife of a veteran and child of Indian immigrants, and that she runs to make her family proud. In televised debates, in pancake houses and town halls, Ms. Haley stops mid-speech for a smile and pointed eye contact. She’s a local American working hard for your vote.
“She connects, she has the X factor,” said David Wilkins, a former speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives who led Ms. Haley’s transition to the governor’s mansion. “The more people around her, the more support she will have, it’s as simple as that.”
Ms. Haley’s campaign often feels like something from 2012: more compromise and pragmatism, fewer grievances and conspiracy theories. She’s a staunch conservative, but she speaks with nuance on hot-button issues like abortion and immigration, and is less willing to wade into the country’s culture wars.
In Iowa this week, it was clear that was at the heart of his appeal. Voters said they appreciated Ms. Haley’s tone and her civility — a clear change from Mr. Trump, who spent part of this week in a federal appeals court over one of four criminal cases distinct issues with which he is currently confronted.
“She’s boring,” one Iowan said of Ms. Haley, before quickly clarifying that it was meant as a compliment. “We need to move away from the political era dominated by what someone tweeted.”
Polls suggest Ms Haley’s measured approach could make her President Joe Biden’s most formidable opponent in November’s general election.
“Trump is taking on Biden on a good day,” she said this week, before citing a Wall Street Journal poll taken late last year. “I beat Biden by 17 points.”
But first she must defeat Mr. Trump.
“It’s still the party of Donald Trump, until the Republican Party says otherwise,” said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa Republican political consultant.
Getty ImagesIt is estimated that at least a third of Republican primary voters belong to the “always Trump” camp – a group both devoted to the former president and repelled by the establishment politics embodied by Ms. Haley.
“I think she’s a little more of the same … and Trump is not,” said Mike Williams, an Iowa resident. “I want someone who’s a little foreign.”
Mr. Trump’s hold on the party doesn’t leave Ms. Haley much room to maneuver.
She must appeal to two very different groups of Republicans: the “never Trumpers” who despise the former president, as well as those who still like him but fear he will lose to Biden. She must distance herself from him without alienating his supporters who might still be persuaded to support someone else.
Ms. Haley was cautious in her criticism of her former boss. During a televised Iowa town hall, one would-be backer coyly admitted that he had voted for Mr. Trump twice. “Me too,” she joked, beaming.
In almost every speech, she performs a carefully rehearsed juggling act. Mr. Trump “was the right president at the right time,” she will say. “But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him.”
Those close to Ms Haley have rejected the suggestion that she could possibly join his list as a vice-presidential candidate – something the Trump campaign has also rejected. But Ms. Haley already said yes to him, when she became his ambassador to the United Nations.
Mr. Trump, for his part, has been increasingly attacking Ms. Haley, whom he dubbed “birdbrain” in September. “She’s a globalist,” he said last week. “She loves the globe. I love America first.”
The escalating criticism is perhaps the clearest sign that the frontrunner is taking her campaign seriously. Some Trump aides also downplayed expectations of a blowout victory in Iowa.
The Republican race will not be decided this month. But upcoming votes in Iowa and New Hampshire will be the first test of whether Mr. Trump’s power is as strong as it seems. Otherwise, Ms. Haley will be waiting in the wings.
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