By Bernd Debusmann Jr, Kayla Epstein and Madeline HalpertBBC News
Ron DeSantis cut a confidence shot from the video that launched his presidential campaign last May.
He walked across a flag-draped stage to cheers and promised his supporters “the great American comeback.”
Seven months later, the man some called “Trump 2.0” and “Trump without baggage” abandoned his candidacy for the White House. His departure comes with the admission that there is no “clear path to victory” against the dominant candidate for the Republican nomination.
So where did things go wrong for the Florida governor, not long ago considered a political rock star for his war on “woke ideology” and his strong track record in office?
There were problems with the candidate himself – a perceived lack of charisma and his awkwardness with voters – as well as with the campaign he ran. But the real reason for his downfall was simply the man he was up against, Donald Trump.
He couldn’t compete with a figure who enjoyed such unwavering support from his supporters, said Matthew Bartlett, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist.
“He (Trump) has represented their political identity, and perhaps even their personal identity, for almost a decade,” Mr. Bartlett said.
Looking back on the campaign, experts said it was a nearly impossible election cycle for a newcomer to the national scene. Mr. DeSantis was essentially running against an incumbent president, with name recognition, unlimited money and an engaged voter base.
ReutersA year ago, when the marathon race for the White House was already underway, it didn’t quite look like this.
Mr. DeSantis began 2023 as a very real threat to Donald Trump. At the time, when only the former president had announced his candidacy, Mr. DeSantis was at about 35% in the polls, within striking distance of his rival.
He also gained momentum after a record-breaking reelection victory for Florida governor last November. On the other hand, many blamed Mr. Trump for the Republicans’ disappointing midterm results.
Still, it turned out to be the high point of DeSantis’ campaign.
By May, when the governor formally announced his White House bid in an interview with tech-plagued Elon Musk, his poll numbers had fallen to nearly 20 percent. Mr. Trump has returned above 50%.
Strategists say the decision to delay the official launch wasted valuable months. More importantly, it gave Mr. Trump a chance to rebuild his image as a political outsider thanks to the national headlines that have surrounded his many legal troubles.
“(The DeSantis campaign) started pretty late, (and) obviously raised a ton of money,” longtime Iowa Republican strategist David Kochel told the BBC. “But at that point, Trump was coming at him with hammer and tongs. I don’t know if they had effective responses. I think it took them a while to engage.”
While Mr. DeSantis may have privately hoped that the former president’s legal troubles would catch up with him, he has never criticized Mr. Trump on the matter and has instead often echoed his rival’s claims that he was unfairly targeted.
“It seems like every time (Mr. Trump) has been indicted, his poll numbers have gone up,” said Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “And to some extent that’s not surprising, because it’s a sort of ‘rally around the main effect’.”
At first, DeSantis used a strategy of trying not to offend Mr. Trump, but the former president showed no such restraint, often resorting to nicknames such as “Meatball Ron” and “Ron DeSanctimonious “.
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Mr. Trump has demolished every Republican rival he has faced since entering the political fray in 2015, but few have chosen, as Mr. DeSantis did, to run to Mr. Trump’s right.
He focused primarily on the culture wars and not the economic issues that were at the top of voters’ minds, and left the moderate path in the race to Ms. Haley.
Placed in the national spotlight, Mr. DeSantis’s limitations as a candidate were revealed — especially when contrasted with Mr. Trump’s outsized personality.
“When you watch DeSantis walk around a room, it seems like he feels like this is something he has to do to take center stage,” said Mary Civiello, an executive communications coach and language expert. body, at the BBC at the time of its launch. “It also seems like it’s not an everyday thing. You could also perceive that he’s a little nervous about it, as you would expect.”
This awkwardness was particularly problematic in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote, where retail policy is so important.
“He has a robotic personality that doesn’t resonate with voters,” Sean Westwood, a government professor at Dartmouth College, said of Mr. DeSantis. “In a world where almost all of his attention was focused on Iowa, he still barely managed to convince (Nikki) Haley.”
By edging Ms. Haley for second place in Iowa on Jan. 15, the DeSantis campaign appeared to have bought a little more time.
Supporters at the caucus night watch party in West Des Moines seemed genuinely pleased with the outcome – chanting “Ron!” » and waving banners. In several interviews, they expressed confidence that he was in a strong position for the future.
“He is clearly the alternative to President Trump,” student Jeff Schremer said. “Voters can rally around him in New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
Ultimately, Ron DeSantis voters in neither state will have a chance to support him. By suspending his campaign and supporting Mr. Trump ahead of these primaries, the Florida governor is stepping down before risking damage to his reputation with Trump supporters.
But at 45, he knows this is not the end of the road.
One of his supporters, Jack Figge, was also looking to the future when he spoke to the BBC after that disappointing result in Iowa. “It’s a big year to see who our leader will be, but I’m much more interested in 2028.” he said. “DeSantis is my guy.”
