The American South has experienced a shift in political allegiance from Democratic dominance to mixed support and now effective Republican rule. In new research, Christopher A. Cooper, Scott H. Huffmon, Gibbs Knotts And Seth C. McKee, take a close look at the state of Southern politics. They find that the past two decades have seen an increase in the black and minority populations in general in much of the region, an increase in immigration from other parts of the United States, and a decline in support for Republicans in urban areas – all trends that favor the Democratic Party. While the Democratic Party is unlikely to win the entire South, they write, we could see the beginnings of a return to more competitive elections.
The transformation of the American South single-party democratic rule after reconstruction in the 1860s and 1870s until the mid-20th century, until the Bipartisan South of the 1980s and 1990s, then single-party republican regime of the early 2000s is perhaps the most important story in American politics of the last hundred years.
The 2020 elections showed that Southern politics could still evolve in important ways. After all, Virginia supported the Democratic candidate for president, as every year since 2008, and Georgia gave its Electoral College votes to Joe Biden — the first time in 28 years that a Democratic presidential candidate won the Peach State. Additionally, the three states where Trump’s margin of victory was smallest—North Carolina, Florida, and Texas—were all south of the Mason-Dixon Line (the figurative line that separates North from South ).
What is the state of Southern politics as the 2024 elections approach? Will Democrats continue to make progress in the American South, or is their modest success in 2020 just a minor setback? New research, we address these questions using a combination of state, county, and individual-level data. Our work helps inform our understanding of modern Southern politics on the eve of the 2024 elections.
A growing and diversifying region
First, we document the South’s continued population growth, emphasizing that the region’s size and political power suggest that neither Democrats nor Republicans should attempt to “Whistle Past Dixie.” In 2020, nearly one in three Americans lived in the eleven states of the former Confederacy (32.6%), compared to about one in four in 1970 (24.6%). This population growth corresponds to the rise of political power, as reflected in congressional seats and Electoral College votes.
Although the South is experiencing growth and therefore should not be ignored, it is the specifics of this growth that contribute to partisan change in the region. Compared to 2000, whites make up a smaller percentage of the population in every Southern state. Additionally, while only 50 percent of southern counties have seen growth in their white populations over the past decade, 87 percent have seen increases in their black and overall minority populations.
We explored the partisan implications of this change using data from a 2022 survey of the Southern electorate conducted by Winthrop University. Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research. We found that the world’s black and majority population is much more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than their white counterparts. This effect is not limited to the black/white racial dichotomy that has often defined Southern political literature, but rather extends to Hispanics who are far less likely to identify as Republicans than are non-Latino whites. THE “browning of the new South”, is therefore likely to benefit the Democratic Party.
“Mason Dixon Line Marker» (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by Jimmywayne
The second component of population growth in the South is the migration of people from outside the region to the South. Researchers, including Irwin Morrisfound that these “movers” are more likely to adopt liberal and Democratic political positions, while people who remain rooted in their community throughout their lives (“remainers” in Morris’s formulation) are more likely to identify as conservatives and republicans.
Our research supports this idea. Our analysis of Winthrop Poll data reveals that people who have lived longer in their community are more likely to identify as Republicans, while new residents are more likely to identify as Democrats. As the region is made up of more and more migrants, it will likely become friendlier toward the Democratic Party.
The final element of partisan change in the South that we examine concerns where individuals live. People in communities with high population growth are much less likely to identify with the Republican Party than those who live in areas with modest or even negative population growth. This is consistent with both Morris’s movers and stayers theory, as well as that of Charles Bullock and his colleagues. observation that the “growing states” (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia) move toward bipartisanship, while the “stagnant states” (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee) remain firmly under the influence of the Republican Party. policy. Our results also help to explain growing geographic polarization in the South where urban areas are becoming more and more democratic, while rural areas are becoming more and more republican.
Looking forward to 2024
Our research shows that the American South is growing much faster than the rest of the United States, and the nature of that growth suggests that Democratic candidates will perform better than in the recent past. In fact, we may be returning to a bipartisan South, at least in the Southern states with the fastest growing populations.
Our results do not imply, however, that Democrats are poised to win the South in the near future. Demographic change is not a political inevitability, and the fact that change is concentrated in fewer than half of the Southern states suggests no reason to anticipate another strong Democratic South. Additionally, in states like Florida and Texas, despite the region’s strongest population growth, Republican electoral success persists. One of the main reasons for this is the enormous participation gaps between minority and white populations.
Also strategic gerrymandering combined with a general lack of awareness of state legislative candidates could also limit Democratic gains. In short, even as statewide elections become increasingly competitive, Democrats may find congressional and state legislative proposals elusive.
The South’s newest politics are home to a growing number of voices, and those voices come from a wider variety of backgrounds and perspectives than ever before. Overall, politically speaking, this historic demographic diversity benefits the Democratic Party. In terms of near-term presidential politics, Virginia is almost certain to fall to the Democrats for the fifth time in a row, and Georgia and North Carolina are battlegrounds again in 2024. Florida, Texas, and South Carolina (the other growing states) are unlikely to reverse, but all three will likely become slightly less Republican in the upcoming presidential elections . In contrast, due to relatively little demographic change in the stagnant Southern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, we should expect them to remain Republican strongholds in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, although one-party Democratic dominance is unlikely to ever return to Dixie, Democrats have a realistic chance of moving toward a competitive two-party South in most of the region.