US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks on March 26, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina; and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, 2024 | Photo credit: AFP
The battle lines for the US presidential election have been drawn as Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz has been announced as the Democratic Party’s candidates for president and vice president, respectively. They will face the Republican Party’s candidates, former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD VanceCurrently, opinion polls show Ms Harris holding an average lead of three points over Mr Trump.
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In the United States, it is not enough for a candidate to win the popular vote in percentage. He or she must also win the Electoral College, a group of electors in each state whose number is determined by the state’s population. The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and the candidate must win a majority of 270 votes to become president. Large states such as California, Texas, New York, and Florida, for example, each provide 55, 38, 29, and 29 Electoral College votes.
In this first article in a series on the US elections, we will look at the “key states” or “swing states.”
Also read: The Hindu Explains | Which are the swing states in US polls?
The maps show how each state has voted in elections since 2000. States won by more than 5% of both parties are shown (red for Republicans and blue for Democrats). The greater the difference in vote shares between the parties, the more intense the color hues (dark red for more Republican votes and dark blue for more Democratic votes).
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Since Mr. Trump’s 2016 election campaign, the disparity in support bases between the two parties has been more pronounced than ever. States that are largely rural, have significant numbers of religious voters, are less racially diverse, and have large white working-class populations tend to vote Republican, while Democrats receive substantial support from states with large urban populations, diverse demographics, and significant numbers of college-educated voters.
Some states have a mix of urban and rural voters and diverse demographics; these are swing states where competition between the two parties is intense. Some swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are from the “Rust Belt,” meaning they were industrialized but have since experienced industrial decline and relative urban decline. Others, such as Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina in the Southeast and Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico in the West/Southwest, are from the “Sun Belt,” meaning they have warm climates. Swing states are marked by a yellowish tint. Since 2016, these states have moved decidedly toward the Republican Party.
To win the election, Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump must win a specific combination of key states in both Belts. If the key states are not included and the strongholds of both parties vote for them, Democrats and Republicans would have 221 and 189 electoral votes, respectively.
Opinion polls show tight race in swing states (Table 1). If the polling averages in these states hold, the electoral college votes would be 292 to 246 for the Democrats. But the margins between the two parties are very tight. If one of the Rust Belt states (say, Pennsylvania) and one of the Sun Belt states (say, Georgia) gave more votes to Mr. Trump than to Ms. Harris, the electoral votes would be 281 to 265 for the Republicans.
The table shows the latest polling averages for Ms Harris and Mr Trump in swing states (as of August 31)
As the election approaches, both parties will focus on campaigning in these states. In upcoming articles, we will look at the support bases of both parties and how they have changed over time.
Source: Nate Silver’s Substack, historical election data from various sources
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Published – September 05, 2024, 08:04 IST