US Election: Polls Show Harris Gaining Ground
Recent polls reflect Harris’s rise. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted between August 23 and 27, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, her lead widens slightly to 52% to Trump’s 46%. The poll also found that 56% of Americans rate Harris’ campaign performance as “excellent” or “good,” compared to 41% for Trump.
THE Wall Street Journal, QuinnipiacThe Suffolk/USA Today polls also have Harris leading, with respective percentages of 48%, 49% and 48%. In contrast, Trump is at 47%, 48% and 43% in these polls.
US Elections: Key States and Margins of Error
Harris is performing particularly well in key states that could be decisive in the outcome of the election. Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls show Harris ahead of Trump by margin of error in Georgia (50%), Michigan (49%), Nevada (50%) and Pennsylvania (51%). She also leads Trump in Wisconsin (53%). However, the race is extremely tight in Arizona and North Carolina, where the two candidates are tied.
The performance stands in stark contrast to Biden’s campaign, which has struggled to make significant inroads in these key states. Harris’ ability to secure leads in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania underscores her appeal as a more reliable leader with voters in those regions.
US Elections: Trump’s Strengths on Key Issues
Despite Harris’ gains, Trump continues to hold his own in areas that are particularly important to voters. He leads Harris by 8 points on the economy and inflation in each case and has a 9-point lead on the handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. These issues are likely to play a crucial role in the run-up to the election. As the Wall Street Journal reports, these areas of strength give Trump a solid foundation, even as he trails in overall polls. “Trump maintains advantages in areas that are key to voters, with an 8-point lead on the economy and inflation, and a 9-point lead on the handling of the U.S.-Mexico border,” the poll results show. The shift in polling dynamics since Biden left office is remarkable. Before Biden stepped down, he trailed Trump in several key states, including the Great Lakes. Swing States and the Sun Belt. Biden’s campaign also faced challenges after the June 27 debate, where he failed to gain momentum. Harris, however, appears to be reversing the trend, particularly among women voters, where she widened her lead to 13 points (54% to 41%) from a previous margin of 6 points.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ polling index also shows Harris holding a 3.8-point national lead over Trump. The ABC News/Ipsos poll, with a margin of sampling error of 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, underscores the competitive nature of this race.
As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tight and highly contested. Harris’s recent gains suggest she is resonating with key voter demographics, but Trump’s strengths on key issues like the economy and border security mean the race is far from over. Both campaigns are likely to step up their efforts, making the next few weeks crucial in determining the final outcome.
(With contributions from YOU)