SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
If it feels like the presidential election has been going on for over a year, no one can blame you, because it has. But the first Monday in September marks the final stretch. Even though things are nearing their end, events could unfold fast and furiously over the next few months. NPR’s Franco Ordoñez and Domenico Montanaro have been following the story for the past year and a half, and they’ll continue to do so through Election Day and beyond. Hey, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Scott.
DETROW: Franco, how are you?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: How are you, Scott?
DETROW: I’m doing great. And we’ve managed to get to Labor Day, which, as we all know, is traditionally the time of year when people really focus on the presidential race. And Domenico, this particular race has had so much upheaval this summer that I don’t even know how to describe where we are today on Labor Day, but there is an intense focus in a race that, up until this point, has really been characterized by a lack of attention from voters. Where are you at right now?
MONTANARO: Well, we’re where we were when the campaign started.
(LAUGH)
MONTANARO: Basically, the seven states that people are watching are all in the swing category: the three Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the four Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada in the West, and North Carolina and Georgia in the East. But if you look strictly at the polls – and there have been a few this week as well – Harris has really made up a lot of ground, four to six points or more in many of these places. She’s now narrowly but consistently leading in those three Blue Wall states. And if she – Scott, if she can hold on to them, she’ll have 270 electoral votes. So it’s really muddied for Trump, and a lot more paths have opened up for Harris. But it’s still very, very tight.
DETROW: It’s crazy that after all the twists and turns of the summer, these same seven states were the ones that were hit the hardest. And here we are. Franco, so much attention has been paid to Harris’ brand new campaign this summer, the introduction of the candidate, the selection of the running mate, the convention…
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah.
DETROW: …First interview we had this week. The secondary story of the Trump campaign was a lack of focus, a lack of drive, and not knowing how to handle it. Where is the Trump campaign heading into the fall? Has Trump picked up the pace?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I mean, there was definitely a lack of focus when Harris became the initial nominee – when Harris, you know, sort of took over from Biden. And the Trump campaign has absolutely accelerated its timeline, particularly as Harris continues to gain traction. I mean, he’s really been criticized for not adapting quickly enough. But in fact, you know, you know, since the DNC convention, he’s been ramping up in key states, sometimes holding multiple events a day. He’s also doing more interviews.
He’s posting more online, including on X, which of course is officially Twitter, for which he’s been temporarily banned. You know, he’s also getting more attention for some of these online activities, like posting or at least republishing on his social media site suggestions that Harris traded sexual favors to advance her political career, which, of course, is not true. Now, I’m not sure that’s the kind of attention Trump wants. But, again, attention is attention for Trump, and that could be a win for him.
DETROW: But what is his goal at this point? Domenico explained that he has lost almost all of his lead in the last two months.
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I think on the one hand, he wants to show that he can outperform Harris or at least not be outperformed by Harris, even though he’s kind of the older candidate now. You know, as the campaign says, there’s not going to be any free shots on goal. You know, I think the main part of his job is to try to show as much contrast as possible with the Harris campaign, whether that’s talking about specific policy issues – like inflation, crime and security, the border – but also attacking and fueling the criticism of Harris for not engaging more with the media and clarifying her own positions in a less scripted way. You mentioned, of course, that she did an interview with CNN, you know, her first since she took over from Biden. But the Trump campaign argues – or has hammered her about it – that she’s not doing enough. And in the same period, he had dozens of interactions with the press. Although, I emphasize, several of them were with very friendly media.
DETROW: Yes. Domenico, you listened to Harris’ interview the other day. Franco talked about the personal attacks that Trump has launched on a wide variety of fronts. I found it remarkable that she stuck to the same approach that she’s taken before, which is the same strategy, but she’s not willing to engage in the personal attacks that Trump is launching at her, even though her campaign is doing so.
MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, she didn’t take the racial bait, for lack of a better term. And that’s something that Trump has tried to do, to drag her into his turmoil, to drag her into the controversies that he’s created. And look, I mean, the fact is, the last two Democratic candidates before Joe Biden were Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama, of course, was a black man, the first black president, and he was very careful about his skin color because he wanted to make sure that he could reach the middle class, particularly white Americans in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan. And you know, he had this Midwestern language. That’s something that he was known for, wanting to appeal to voters in southern Illinois, for example, being someone who was known as a “liquid coal” senator when he was working with Jim Bunning, the senator from neighboring Kentucky, because he was really trying to target those voters and show that he was not a radical and that he could win. And guess what? He did.
Hillary Clinton took a little bit of a different approach in 2016, leaning heavily on her gender, talking about the glass ceiling, and for a lot of voters, that didn’t work. So Kamala Harris has seen both. She has a bunch of Obama supporters on her team. And she’s clearly made a decision not to lean on race and gender to give anyone an excuse not to vote for her. She’s sticking to the kinds of issues that are all center-oriented.
DETROW: Franco, I’ll just wrap up with you. We started the conversation with Domenico by saying that despite all the twists and turns of the summer, we’re at the starting point of the race with seven states that could be decisive, but all of those states are very close. Does the Trump world view this race as a fundamentally different race or the same basic principles that they’ve always fought on?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I mean, I – certainly, you know, there have been changes, but they also recognize that there are different dynamics. I mean, obviously, we’ve watched how Trump has tried to tie Harris to, you know, the Biden administration, Biden’s policies. At the same time, they certainly recognize that there’s been a change in dynamics, and they need to address that. I think that’s why you’re seeing such changes in the campaign. I’ve – talked to members of the campaign who say they’re going to continue to ramp up these efforts. And they really have no choice. I mean, Harris has been riding this incredible wave – the polls, the half-billion dollars in fundraising. The Trump campaign needs to act, and that’s also why I think you’re seeing the upheaval in the campaign staff.
DETROW: That’s Franco Ordoñez, and Domenico Montanaro. Thank you both.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Scott.
MONTANARO: You got it.
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