A US presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the US elections in November.
In an interview with CTV News on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent.
Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly predicted the winner of almost every presidential election since 1984, with the exception of one: the 2000 race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
Lichtman denies making a prediction right after saying that “Florida blew this election” and that Al Gore should have won.
His method, the “13 Keys to the White House,” looks at the strength and performance of the party in power rather than polls or pundits.
In a article published In the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman describes the 13 keys: party mandate, competition, incumbency, third party, short-term and long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
“If six or more of the keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers, less than six negative keys, they are predicted winners,” Lichtman told CTV News Channel.
Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 that he had accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and as the president’s approval ratings were falling.
“In 2016, I defied pundits, pollsters and most other modelers by calling Donald Trump the winner, which didn’t make me very popular in Washington, D.C., a city that is more than 90 percent Democratic, where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between Vice President Harris and her opponent, former President Trump.
While many political analysts will be watching the debate closely for clues about the outcome of the election, Lichtman cautions against giving too much weight to the event.
“Debates don’t predict election outcomes, any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won every debate and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a terrible debater, George W. Bush, and still lost the election.”
Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that the outcome is not dependent on campaign events. “But you definitely have to watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added.
Watch the full interview with Allan Lichtman at the top of the article.